Heroes:
1) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Here, have some stats: In seven road games this season, the Saints have surrendered 20+ FPTs to opposing QBs five times. This week the Saints travel to Dallas to face Tony Romo, who has posted double-digit FPTs every games since his Week 4 meltdown against Chicago.
2) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
Ravens have been horrific against the pass and Nicks is banged up, so logic points to Cruz bouncing back from his abysmal performance from last week. Plus, don't you think the Giants will be a tad vengeful after their shutout loss to Atlanta?
3) Stevan Ridley (RB - NE)
Nothing leaves me cold and lonely this holiday season like thoughts of the Jags' defense. Ridley may have been in Belichick's doghouse last week, but consider that Ridley had posted a TD in six straight games prior to the San Fran Slopfest. And it's the Jags. If you run, you score.
Bums:
1) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Even if he weren't facing a brutal Broncos defense, I'd still be wary of the fact that T-Rich crashed into the rookie wall in recent weeks. Although he's had six TDs in the past four weeks, his yardage totals have been on a steady decline since Week 8 (from 122 to 28 over an eight week span that included a bye week).
2) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Injured, on a short week, playing in a game that the Falcons don't exactly need to win. Start Julio, start Tony G, just back away from Roddy.
3) Dennis Pitta (TE - BAL)
He put up gorgeous numbers in garbage time last week (7/125/2TD), but that was against the Broncos' last ranked TE defense. This week Pitta faces a Giants team that has only surrendered three TDs to TEs all season long.
Sleepers:
1) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
I had Henne in my sleeper section last week and he gave an average performance (221 yds, 0 TDs), and this week I expect him to crack 300 yards passing and 2 TDs. Being a lifelong Jags fan, I know that my boys have never defeated the Patriots in the regular season. They will be down big and throwing lots to make things look respectable.
2) Stevie Johnson (WR - BUF)
Not the deepest of sleepers, but Buffalo's getting ugly to the point where you might forget Stevie exists. He does exist, and he does have a favorable matchup in sunny Miami against a defense that has surrendered 90+ yards to #1 WRs in the past two weeks.
3) Tony Scheffler (TE - DET)
Pettigrew's out and Stafford can't throw to Calvin Johnson on every play. The Lions will be throwing all night and I expect The Shuffler to finish second in targets, catches, and yards. If he grabs a TD, hello bonus points.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Week 15: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Week 13: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Week 12: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Busy week for me, so we're doing short picks.
Heroes:
1) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Falcons like to throw, face an abominable pass defense this week in Tampa, and Julio Jones will at best be limited this week. That means Roddy carries the load in the receiving game, with Tony Gonzo catching enough passes to keep the secondary honest.
2) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
He'll rebound in a big way this week. Expect a shootout against Green Bay, with Eli racking up tons of yardage and 3 TDs.
3) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
There's no one happier to see Henne under center than yours truly. The Gabbert Era was trainwreck tucked inside a natural disaster. I expect Henne to finish the season with Top 12 QB numbers. Last week he made Blackmon and Short look like Smith and McCardell against the Texans. Now those three have an opportunity to rip the Titans.
Bums:
1) Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts (WRs - ARI)
The fact that it's Saturday and I still haven't learned the name of the Cards' starting QB tells you how much faith I have in this passing game.
2) Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (RBs - MIA)
Seattle: can't throw on 'em, can't run on 'em.
Sleepers:
1) Jalen Parmele (RB - JAC)
He's the every down back until MJD returns. Oh, and the Jags finally have a passing game to keep defenses honest.
2) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
The Dwayne Allen Sleeper TE Lounge is still open. Fleener is set to miss another week. Take the 6 catches, 60+ yards and enjoy.
3) Browns D/ST and Panthers D/ST
They face Chaz Batch and Nicholas Foles, respectively.
Heroes:
1) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Falcons like to throw, face an abominable pass defense this week in Tampa, and Julio Jones will at best be limited this week. That means Roddy carries the load in the receiving game, with Tony Gonzo catching enough passes to keep the secondary honest.
2) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
He'll rebound in a big way this week. Expect a shootout against Green Bay, with Eli racking up tons of yardage and 3 TDs.
3) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
There's no one happier to see Henne under center than yours truly. The Gabbert Era was trainwreck tucked inside a natural disaster. I expect Henne to finish the season with Top 12 QB numbers. Last week he made Blackmon and Short look like Smith and McCardell against the Texans. Now those three have an opportunity to rip the Titans.
Bums:
1) Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts (WRs - ARI)
The fact that it's Saturday and I still haven't learned the name of the Cards' starting QB tells you how much faith I have in this passing game.
2) Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (RBs - MIA)
Seattle: can't throw on 'em, can't run on 'em.
Sleepers:
1) Jalen Parmele (RB - JAC)
He's the every down back until MJD returns. Oh, and the Jags finally have a passing game to keep defenses honest.
2) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
The Dwayne Allen Sleeper TE Lounge is still open. Fleener is set to miss another week. Take the 6 catches, 60+ yards and enjoy.
3) Browns D/ST and Panthers D/ST
They face Chaz Batch and Nicholas Foles, respectively.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Week 11: Heroes, Bust, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
He's gonna pop this week. I was a week premature with my prediction of a monster game from Spiller (he still had 13 points in a standard league), but he's due to explode tonight at home against Miami. With Fred Jackson out and Buffalo's receiving corps banged-up, Spiller should net 150 total yards and--let's go bold--two TDs.
And while we're on the subject of Buffalo, when the hell is Chan Gailey going to wake up and realize that Fred Jackson is 80 years old and as fumble-prone as they come? If Joe Philbin is willing to sit Reggie Bush for the entire game after a fumble, why can't Gailey drop the same punishment on Jackson? Otherwise, Spiller's best years are just going to waste.
2) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Only one TD on the season so far, but I like Steve Smith against bad pass defenses. And Tampa has an atrocious pass defense. Tampa also has a high-scoring offense (no less than 28 points in a game since their Bye week), so this one has shootout writing all over it. 100 yards and a TD for Smith.
3) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
Calling it right now: Andy Dandy will be a Top 5 QB next year. Pencil him in as your 8th round pick and thank me around New Year's 2014. As for this weekend, Dalton gets to shred/maul/annihilate/etc. an abysmal Chiefs secondary that has given up at least 2 TDs in seven of nine games this year. Andy Dandy had four TDs last week, and he's playing a team that is on a short week following a gut-crunching overtime loss.
Busts:
1) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Forte has a horrific match-up, and I just can't trust Brandon Marshall. Sooner or later defenses will have to give him the Calvin Johnson treatment (aka triple coverage) and see if the other homeless men posing as Bears WRs can produce. This week I don't like Marshall for three reasons: 1) a lack of Jay Cutler (although Jason Campbell looked quite serviceable against Houston); 2) the 49ers defense (which I realize can be beaten through the air--but honestly, after Marshall was the only player with more than 10 receiving yards for Chicago last week, how can't you build your defensive strategy around snuffing him out?); and 3) the inevitable lack of a run game.
2) Ryan Tannehill (QB - MIA)
He's a sexy bye week filler pick because he gets to face the Bills, but there's no reason why you should trust a rookie QB on the road on Thurday night. Even against the Bills. Dig deeper on waivers if you're still desperate for a QB.
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
It's almost closing time at the Dwayne Allen Fantasy Sleeper Lounge, so please sneak in for a last second drink before Coby Fleener shuts the place down. Pull up a stool and we can discuss how this week's Colts/Pats game will be a shootout, with the Patriots surrendering the 4th most points to fantasy TEs.
2) Mohamed Sanu (WR - CIN)
A buddy of mine talked up Sanu during the offseason, and I'm starting to drink the Kool-Aid. Last week Sanu was second on the team in targets (6), catches (4), and yards (47). He also tacked on a TD and got Andy Dandy talking during the week about his reliability as a WR. Sanu should have a decent encore, and if KC decides to key-in on AJ Green, Sanu could post WR2 numbers.
3) Rams D/ST
Mark Sanchez.
That's it. That's my write-up for the Rams D/ST this week. Oh? You want more? Let's try it again.
Mark Sanchez, on the road.
1) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
He's gonna pop this week. I was a week premature with my prediction of a monster game from Spiller (he still had 13 points in a standard league), but he's due to explode tonight at home against Miami. With Fred Jackson out and Buffalo's receiving corps banged-up, Spiller should net 150 total yards and--let's go bold--two TDs.
And while we're on the subject of Buffalo, when the hell is Chan Gailey going to wake up and realize that Fred Jackson is 80 years old and as fumble-prone as they come? If Joe Philbin is willing to sit Reggie Bush for the entire game after a fumble, why can't Gailey drop the same punishment on Jackson? Otherwise, Spiller's best years are just going to waste.
2) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Only one TD on the season so far, but I like Steve Smith against bad pass defenses. And Tampa has an atrocious pass defense. Tampa also has a high-scoring offense (no less than 28 points in a game since their Bye week), so this one has shootout writing all over it. 100 yards and a TD for Smith.
3) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
Calling it right now: Andy Dandy will be a Top 5 QB next year. Pencil him in as your 8th round pick and thank me around New Year's 2014. As for this weekend, Dalton gets to shred/maul/annihilate/etc. an abysmal Chiefs secondary that has given up at least 2 TDs in seven of nine games this year. Andy Dandy had four TDs last week, and he's playing a team that is on a short week following a gut-crunching overtime loss.
Busts:
1) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Forte has a horrific match-up, and I just can't trust Brandon Marshall. Sooner or later defenses will have to give him the Calvin Johnson treatment (aka triple coverage) and see if the other homeless men posing as Bears WRs can produce. This week I don't like Marshall for three reasons: 1) a lack of Jay Cutler (although Jason Campbell looked quite serviceable against Houston); 2) the 49ers defense (which I realize can be beaten through the air--but honestly, after Marshall was the only player with more than 10 receiving yards for Chicago last week, how can't you build your defensive strategy around snuffing him out?); and 3) the inevitable lack of a run game.
2) Ryan Tannehill (QB - MIA)
He's a sexy bye week filler pick because he gets to face the Bills, but there's no reason why you should trust a rookie QB on the road on Thurday night. Even against the Bills. Dig deeper on waivers if you're still desperate for a QB.
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
It's almost closing time at the Dwayne Allen Fantasy Sleeper Lounge, so please sneak in for a last second drink before Coby Fleener shuts the place down. Pull up a stool and we can discuss how this week's Colts/Pats game will be a shootout, with the Patriots surrendering the 4th most points to fantasy TEs.
2) Mohamed Sanu (WR - CIN)
A buddy of mine talked up Sanu during the offseason, and I'm starting to drink the Kool-Aid. Last week Sanu was second on the team in targets (6), catches (4), and yards (47). He also tacked on a TD and got Andy Dandy talking during the week about his reliability as a WR. Sanu should have a decent encore, and if KC decides to key-in on AJ Green, Sanu could post WR2 numbers.
3) Rams D/ST
Mark Sanchez.
That's it. That's my write-up for the Rams D/ST this week. Oh? You want more? Let's try it again.
Mark Sanchez, on the road.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Week 10: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE)
With Aaron Hernandez officially listed as out, you can bank on the Brady-Gronk connection hitting for at least two TDs. Patriots have had a week to rest and prepare for another beatdown of the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady has never lost to Buffalo at home, and we the two teams played back in Week 4, Brady posted his best fantasy day of the season. Expect a repeat, and expect Gronk to reap the benefits.
2) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Julio has had two straight 120+ yard games, and both came against better defenses than what he'll face on Sunday in New Orleans. Throw in the face that Drew Brees will make this a shootout, and you can expect fantasy points flying through the air for three hours.
3) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
The Patriots have the 3rd-best fantasy run defense, but check out some of the RBs they've faced: Chris Johnson, Beanie Wells, Injured Fred Jackson, Injured CJ Spiller, and Shonne Greene. This time around Spiller is healthy, and Chan Gailey has promised to increase Spiller's workload (hey, better late than never). Spiller has absolutely thrived when he's received the majority of the carries, and even if Buffalo falls behind early, he's electric in the passing game. Expect one big TD from Spiller, compounded by an assload of yardage.
4) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
He's playing his old team, the Chargers, who have probably done nothing but study Doug Martin footage all week long. The Chargers are pretty tough against the run as is, so the streaking hot Josh Freeman will get to show off in the passing game. And if anyone's eager to show off against San Diego, it's Vincent Jackson. If he was willing to sit out nearly an entire season of his Bolt's career, imagine how motivated he'll be when they come to town (during the 1pm timeslot no less).
Bums:
1) Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Everyone loves to point at the fact that Wilson's TD:INT ratio is 9:0 at home, but he'll see the best pass defense of his short career on Sunday. Expect heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch and solid defensive play from Seattle.
2) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips vowed to double-cover Marshall on every play Sunday night. Now, Marshall has proven he's capable of beating double-coverage, but when it's shutdown corner Jonathan Joseph plus one, you'd be wise to look elsewhere for a stud WR this week. As for Matt Forte, here's a stat for you: zero. That's the number of rushing TDs the Texans have allowed this season. This game will be an offensive disaster for the Bears. Expect Cutler to be on his back more often than not tomorrow night. And when he is upright, I expect J.J. Watt to be batting passes everywhere.
Sleepers:
1) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
The phrase "sophomore slump" keeps getting thrown around, but Dalton has posted double-digits in all but two games this season. A.J. Green is still playing at an elite level, Jermaine Gresham is heating up, and Dalton will be at home to face a dreadful Giants pass defense (ranked 26th in the league, 18th in terms of fantasy pass defense). Andy Dandy should post a solid day, possibly a top-5 day if Eli forces a shootout.
2) Emmanuel Sanders (WR - PIT)
Sneaky play. Sanders has been solid as Pitt's No. 3 WR this year, and no he gets bumped up to No. 2 with Antonio Brown out. And his opponent? The lowly Chiefs, who've given up 6 TDs and over 500 yards to WRs in their past three games.
3) Taiwan Jones (RB - OAK)
It's risky since Jones has only had one carry all year, but if you're digging for a cheap/desperate RB this week, roll the dice on Taiwan Jones. He's speedy, he's starting, and the Ravens have surrendered double-digit fantasy points to RBs in every. single. game. this season.
1) Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE)
With Aaron Hernandez officially listed as out, you can bank on the Brady-Gronk connection hitting for at least two TDs. Patriots have had a week to rest and prepare for another beatdown of the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady has never lost to Buffalo at home, and we the two teams played back in Week 4, Brady posted his best fantasy day of the season. Expect a repeat, and expect Gronk to reap the benefits.
2) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Julio has had two straight 120+ yard games, and both came against better defenses than what he'll face on Sunday in New Orleans. Throw in the face that Drew Brees will make this a shootout, and you can expect fantasy points flying through the air for three hours.
3) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
The Patriots have the 3rd-best fantasy run defense, but check out some of the RBs they've faced: Chris Johnson, Beanie Wells, Injured Fred Jackson, Injured CJ Spiller, and Shonne Greene. This time around Spiller is healthy, and Chan Gailey has promised to increase Spiller's workload (hey, better late than never). Spiller has absolutely thrived when he's received the majority of the carries, and even if Buffalo falls behind early, he's electric in the passing game. Expect one big TD from Spiller, compounded by an assload of yardage.
4) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
He's playing his old team, the Chargers, who have probably done nothing but study Doug Martin footage all week long. The Chargers are pretty tough against the run as is, so the streaking hot Josh Freeman will get to show off in the passing game. And if anyone's eager to show off against San Diego, it's Vincent Jackson. If he was willing to sit out nearly an entire season of his Bolt's career, imagine how motivated he'll be when they come to town (during the 1pm timeslot no less).
Bums:
1) Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Everyone loves to point at the fact that Wilson's TD:INT ratio is 9:0 at home, but he'll see the best pass defense of his short career on Sunday. Expect heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch and solid defensive play from Seattle.
2) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips vowed to double-cover Marshall on every play Sunday night. Now, Marshall has proven he's capable of beating double-coverage, but when it's shutdown corner Jonathan Joseph plus one, you'd be wise to look elsewhere for a stud WR this week. As for Matt Forte, here's a stat for you: zero. That's the number of rushing TDs the Texans have allowed this season. This game will be an offensive disaster for the Bears. Expect Cutler to be on his back more often than not tomorrow night. And when he is upright, I expect J.J. Watt to be batting passes everywhere.
Sleepers:
1) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
The phrase "sophomore slump" keeps getting thrown around, but Dalton has posted double-digits in all but two games this season. A.J. Green is still playing at an elite level, Jermaine Gresham is heating up, and Dalton will be at home to face a dreadful Giants pass defense (ranked 26th in the league, 18th in terms of fantasy pass defense). Andy Dandy should post a solid day, possibly a top-5 day if Eli forces a shootout.
2) Emmanuel Sanders (WR - PIT)
Sneaky play. Sanders has been solid as Pitt's No. 3 WR this year, and no he gets bumped up to No. 2 with Antonio Brown out. And his opponent? The lowly Chiefs, who've given up 6 TDs and over 500 yards to WRs in their past three games.
3) Taiwan Jones (RB - OAK)
It's risky since Jones has only had one carry all year, but if you're digging for a cheap/desperate RB this week, roll the dice on Taiwan Jones. He's speedy, he's starting, and the Ravens have surrendered double-digit fantasy points to RBs in every. single. game. this season.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 9: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Last week Cam Newton targeted Steve Smith SIXTEEN times for seven catches and triple-figure yardage. That was against the Bears, who pride themselves on their defense. This week Steve Smith faces Washington's laughable secondary. Also note that Steve Smith is well overdue for a TD--hasn't scored all year, but bank on at least one TD against the Skins.
2) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's at home this week, and he's facing a Miami defense that can only be beat through the air. Start Luck and anyone else in the Colts passing game this week.
3) Alfred Morris (RB - WAS)
The Panthers are gashed with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and they had a porous run defense to begin with. Morris has hit triple-figures in 3 of the last 5 weeks, and he's primed to make it 4 for 6.
Bums:
1) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Seattle's defense ranks third against fantasy RBs, and Christian Ponder has regressed to the point where defenses can afford to stack the box. Ponder had 58 yards passing against Arizona, then collected a good chunk of his 251 yards against Tampa in garbage time. Wouldn't you stack the box?
2) CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Until one of these guys kills the other in cold blood, this timeshare is going to stifle what would otherwise be phenomenal upside. While you can normally get around 10-15 points from either of these RBs, this week Houston should shut them down. 8 points is the ceiling for either of them this week.
3) Roddy White and Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
I'm listing them both here because I don't think it's possible to trust either of them against the Cowboys on Sunday. Julio is notorious for underperforming at home this year, and Dallas' secondary is solid enough to keep them both in check. I still think Matt Ryan is a safe start, and I like Tony Gonzales a ton this week (he's way overdue for a TD).
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
Oh, boy, do I love Dwayne Allen this week. He garners a reliable 3 or 4 fantasy points most weeks, but on Sunday the Colts will be without starting TE Coby Fleener. That means more balls will sail Allen's way, and the match-up (against Miami's brutal run defense) should force Andrew Luck to pull the trigger to no end. Expect 60-70 yards and a TD for Allen.
2) Justin Blackmon (WR - JAC)
Last week's sign of the apocalypse was Blaine Gabbert's 300+ yard passing effort (Congrats, Blaine, it only took you 22 tries!). Now Cecil Shorts is everybody's darling as far as Jags receivers go, and I like him this week, but I think Justin Blackmon might stop dropping passes and hang onto a TD pass. And, hey, the Lions will be throwing and scoring, so Gabbert will have to play catch-up.
3) Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
It's Thursday night, which means the Chiefs/Chargers match-up has to play out in one of two ways: defensive borefest or lopsided defeat. I say we get the former (I'm calling 20-13 Chargers), complete with 2 INTs, 3 sacks, and a fumble recovery from the Chiefs D. It's a slightly risky play, but until Phil Rivers clears his head, start the opposing defense, especially on a short week.
1) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Last week Cam Newton targeted Steve Smith SIXTEEN times for seven catches and triple-figure yardage. That was against the Bears, who pride themselves on their defense. This week Steve Smith faces Washington's laughable secondary. Also note that Steve Smith is well overdue for a TD--hasn't scored all year, but bank on at least one TD against the Skins.
2) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's at home this week, and he's facing a Miami defense that can only be beat through the air. Start Luck and anyone else in the Colts passing game this week.
3) Alfred Morris (RB - WAS)
The Panthers are gashed with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and they had a porous run defense to begin with. Morris has hit triple-figures in 3 of the last 5 weeks, and he's primed to make it 4 for 6.
Bums:
1) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Seattle's defense ranks third against fantasy RBs, and Christian Ponder has regressed to the point where defenses can afford to stack the box. Ponder had 58 yards passing against Arizona, then collected a good chunk of his 251 yards against Tampa in garbage time. Wouldn't you stack the box?
2) CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Until one of these guys kills the other in cold blood, this timeshare is going to stifle what would otherwise be phenomenal upside. While you can normally get around 10-15 points from either of these RBs, this week Houston should shut them down. 8 points is the ceiling for either of them this week.
3) Roddy White and Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
I'm listing them both here because I don't think it's possible to trust either of them against the Cowboys on Sunday. Julio is notorious for underperforming at home this year, and Dallas' secondary is solid enough to keep them both in check. I still think Matt Ryan is a safe start, and I like Tony Gonzales a ton this week (he's way overdue for a TD).
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
Oh, boy, do I love Dwayne Allen this week. He garners a reliable 3 or 4 fantasy points most weeks, but on Sunday the Colts will be without starting TE Coby Fleener. That means more balls will sail Allen's way, and the match-up (against Miami's brutal run defense) should force Andrew Luck to pull the trigger to no end. Expect 60-70 yards and a TD for Allen.
2) Justin Blackmon (WR - JAC)
Last week's sign of the apocalypse was Blaine Gabbert's 300+ yard passing effort (Congrats, Blaine, it only took you 22 tries!). Now Cecil Shorts is everybody's darling as far as Jags receivers go, and I like him this week, but I think Justin Blackmon might stop dropping passes and hang onto a TD pass. And, hey, the Lions will be throwing and scoring, so Gabbert will have to play catch-up.
3) Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
It's Thursday night, which means the Chiefs/Chargers match-up has to play out in one of two ways: defensive borefest or lopsided defeat. I say we get the former (I'm calling 20-13 Chargers), complete with 2 INTs, 3 sacks, and a fumble recovery from the Chiefs D. It's a slightly risky play, but until Phil Rivers clears his head, start the opposing defense, especially on a short week.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Week 8: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes
1) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
You can start Manning and pretty much every pass-catcher in this offense. Saints/Broncos has shootout written all over it, and if the game follows the usual Broncos script, we should see Peyton entering comeback mode at some point in the second quarter. Note that Josh Freeman set career highs against the Saints on Sunday. Note also that Josh Freeman is not a Hall of Fame caliber QB.
2) Matt Forte (RB - CHI)
Carolina is a flaming mess at this point, losing Jon Beason and their GM this week. With the injuries and distractions, Carolina will go soft on defense (and they're already pillow soft). throw in the fact that Jay Cutler's a little banged up, and Forte should be the focus of the offense.
3) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
The last time Big Ben played a secondary as bad as Washington's, he lit up the Raiders for 4 TDs and 384 yards passing.
Bums
1) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
In case you missed Monday Night Football, the Bears showed America the textbook method to shutting down the Lions offense: take away Calvin, let Stafford figure out if there's anyone else he can trust. Now, I rave about Seattle's secondary every week, so it shouldn't surprise anyone when I say that three Pro Bowlers should be able to contain Calvin. I'm feeling a pedestrian 70 yards for Megatron on Sunday.
2) All your Rams
London games are historically low-scoring, and the Rams themselves have been historically low scoring in the past six years or so. Never underestimate 7-hours worth of jetlag, which is what the Rams will face as opposed to the Patriots 6-hours of sleep alteration. If I had to start one Ram, it'd be Chris Givens--a deep threat going against a Pats D that can't handle deep threats.
3) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
He struggled against the Cowboys in Week 1, dropping seemingly every pass that hit his fingers. Nicks is back, and the Cowboys are ranked 7th against opposing fantasy wideouts. After four straight weeks with at least one TD, Cruz is due to lay an egg.
Sleepers
1) Dolphins D/ST
The Jets have been living off the run these past two weeks, and Miami specializes in building brick walls at the line of scrimmage. Plus the Dolphins are fresh off a bye and the Jets are fresh off a gut-wrenching OT defeat.
2) Montario Hardesty (RB - CLE)
Check Richardson's status, but if Hardesty starts his should have a solid game at home against a so-so San Diego defense playing at 1 pm.
3) Joel Dreessen (TE - DEN)
Total gut call. He's eclipsed Jacob Tamme in terms of targets, but it's hard to say which one will catch a TD this Sunday night (if either do).
1) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
You can start Manning and pretty much every pass-catcher in this offense. Saints/Broncos has shootout written all over it, and if the game follows the usual Broncos script, we should see Peyton entering comeback mode at some point in the second quarter. Note that Josh Freeman set career highs against the Saints on Sunday. Note also that Josh Freeman is not a Hall of Fame caliber QB.
2) Matt Forte (RB - CHI)
Carolina is a flaming mess at this point, losing Jon Beason and their GM this week. With the injuries and distractions, Carolina will go soft on defense (and they're already pillow soft). throw in the fact that Jay Cutler's a little banged up, and Forte should be the focus of the offense.
3) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
The last time Big Ben played a secondary as bad as Washington's, he lit up the Raiders for 4 TDs and 384 yards passing.
Bums
1) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
In case you missed Monday Night Football, the Bears showed America the textbook method to shutting down the Lions offense: take away Calvin, let Stafford figure out if there's anyone else he can trust. Now, I rave about Seattle's secondary every week, so it shouldn't surprise anyone when I say that three Pro Bowlers should be able to contain Calvin. I'm feeling a pedestrian 70 yards for Megatron on Sunday.
2) All your Rams
London games are historically low-scoring, and the Rams themselves have been historically low scoring in the past six years or so. Never underestimate 7-hours worth of jetlag, which is what the Rams will face as opposed to the Patriots 6-hours of sleep alteration. If I had to start one Ram, it'd be Chris Givens--a deep threat going against a Pats D that can't handle deep threats.
3) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
He struggled against the Cowboys in Week 1, dropping seemingly every pass that hit his fingers. Nicks is back, and the Cowboys are ranked 7th against opposing fantasy wideouts. After four straight weeks with at least one TD, Cruz is due to lay an egg.
Sleepers
1) Dolphins D/ST
The Jets have been living off the run these past two weeks, and Miami specializes in building brick walls at the line of scrimmage. Plus the Dolphins are fresh off a bye and the Jets are fresh off a gut-wrenching OT defeat.
2) Montario Hardesty (RB - CLE)
Check Richardson's status, but if Hardesty starts his should have a solid game at home against a so-so San Diego defense playing at 1 pm.
3) Joel Dreessen (TE - DEN)
Total gut call. He's eclipsed Jacob Tamme in terms of targets, but it's hard to say which one will catch a TD this Sunday night (if either do).
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 7: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
Had a relatively quiet game last week while Alex Smith did his best Kyle Williams impression. I don't expect the Redskins to hand the game away, so expect tons of points on the reality and fantasy scoreboards. Eli should thrash that embarrassing Redskins secondary, and Ahmad Bradshaw's developing injury means the Giants will go light on the ground game this week.
2) Denarius Moore (WR - OAK)
Remember over the summer when Carson Palmer had all those glowing comments for Denarius Moore? Now that Moore's healthy, I'm apt to believe Palmer. The two were electric last week against the Falcons, with Moore posting a statline of 5-104-1 on 9 targets. That's great. What's better is the fact that now Moore gets to go up against a defense that gave up 20.8 PPG to opposing wideouts before losing their top safety.
3) Felix Jones (RB - DAL)
Felix Jones is the fantasy equivalent of an unfaithful woman who swears again and again that she's ready to commit. Felix looks pretty on draftboards and on waivers, yet as soon as you invite him into your lineup, the pangs of regret swell from within. However, this week against Carolina's silly run defense (ranked 28th against RBs; has surrendered at least 92 yards rushing to every backfield), I can see Felix posting triple-figures and a TD. Don't get swept away though--dump him or sell high as soon as this Carolina game is over.
Bums:
1) Every offensive player involved in the Seahawks/49ers game
Offenses typically sputter on Thursday nights to begin with, and now you're telling me that two elite defenses have the mid-week game? Don't start anyone other than Defenses and Kickers. I expect San Fran to win, so maybe you could talk me into Frank Gore. Absolutely no Seahawks though. You can't run on the Niners, and Russell Wilson can't throw on anyone (I'm not sold on his performance against the Patriots. No way do the Niners allow Wilson to chuck deep balls on them).
2) James Jones (WR - GB)
There's been a trend in his stats the past three weeks: 17, 16, 15. Sure, you might say you'd take 14 points if that trend were to continue, but allow me to rain and pour on the James Jones parade: Jones has had two TDs in each of the past three games. It's a remarkable streak, but when you factor out those TDs, your left with 5, 4, and 3 points-worth of yardage, respectively. So if you're plugging James Jones in your lineup, you'd better be damned sure he'll catch touchdowns. Otherwise, you'll groan at the sight of his 4 catch, 34 yard performance. And against a solid Ram defense, I feel this is the week he has one of those ugly stat-lines.
3) Mikel Leshoure (RB - DET)
Jahvid Best won't be back, but timeshares were never the concern with Leshoure. Even though Stafford's stats are down this year (4 passing TDs in 5 games), this is still a pass-heavy offense. And against the Bears defense, which hasn't allowed a backfield to crack 90 yards rushing, I can't endorse Leshoure. At best he's bye-week filler.
Sleepers:
1) Josh Freeman (QB - TB)
Drew Brees will throw at least four TDs on Sunday against a terrible Tampa secondary. Without question. But that does raise the question: will Josh Freeman be able to keep up? He'll have an easy match-up, and I can't see him throwing less than two TDs in this one. Tampa will be down and throwing.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - TEN)
Getting healthier every week, as are his statlines. Last year he was unquestionably Hasselbeck's favorite WR, and that connection is heating up again. This week Britt faces an atrocious Buffalo secondary that gave up 200 yards to the Niners' and Jets' receivers. Buffalo has also given up at least one TD to every receiving corp they've encountered.
1) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
Had a relatively quiet game last week while Alex Smith did his best Kyle Williams impression. I don't expect the Redskins to hand the game away, so expect tons of points on the reality and fantasy scoreboards. Eli should thrash that embarrassing Redskins secondary, and Ahmad Bradshaw's developing injury means the Giants will go light on the ground game this week.
2) Denarius Moore (WR - OAK)
Remember over the summer when Carson Palmer had all those glowing comments for Denarius Moore? Now that Moore's healthy, I'm apt to believe Palmer. The two were electric last week against the Falcons, with Moore posting a statline of 5-104-1 on 9 targets. That's great. What's better is the fact that now Moore gets to go up against a defense that gave up 20.8 PPG to opposing wideouts before losing their top safety.
3) Felix Jones (RB - DAL)
Felix Jones is the fantasy equivalent of an unfaithful woman who swears again and again that she's ready to commit. Felix looks pretty on draftboards and on waivers, yet as soon as you invite him into your lineup, the pangs of regret swell from within. However, this week against Carolina's silly run defense (ranked 28th against RBs; has surrendered at least 92 yards rushing to every backfield), I can see Felix posting triple-figures and a TD. Don't get swept away though--dump him or sell high as soon as this Carolina game is over.
Bums:
1) Every offensive player involved in the Seahawks/49ers game
Offenses typically sputter on Thursday nights to begin with, and now you're telling me that two elite defenses have the mid-week game? Don't start anyone other than Defenses and Kickers. I expect San Fran to win, so maybe you could talk me into Frank Gore. Absolutely no Seahawks though. You can't run on the Niners, and Russell Wilson can't throw on anyone (I'm not sold on his performance against the Patriots. No way do the Niners allow Wilson to chuck deep balls on them).
2) James Jones (WR - GB)
There's been a trend in his stats the past three weeks: 17, 16, 15. Sure, you might say you'd take 14 points if that trend were to continue, but allow me to rain and pour on the James Jones parade: Jones has had two TDs in each of the past three games. It's a remarkable streak, but when you factor out those TDs, your left with 5, 4, and 3 points-worth of yardage, respectively. So if you're plugging James Jones in your lineup, you'd better be damned sure he'll catch touchdowns. Otherwise, you'll groan at the sight of his 4 catch, 34 yard performance. And against a solid Ram defense, I feel this is the week he has one of those ugly stat-lines.
3) Mikel Leshoure (RB - DET)
Jahvid Best won't be back, but timeshares were never the concern with Leshoure. Even though Stafford's stats are down this year (4 passing TDs in 5 games), this is still a pass-heavy offense. And against the Bears defense, which hasn't allowed a backfield to crack 90 yards rushing, I can't endorse Leshoure. At best he's bye-week filler.
Sleepers:
1) Josh Freeman (QB - TB)
Drew Brees will throw at least four TDs on Sunday against a terrible Tampa secondary. Without question. But that does raise the question: will Josh Freeman be able to keep up? He'll have an easy match-up, and I can't see him throwing less than two TDs in this one. Tampa will be down and throwing.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - TEN)
Getting healthier every week, as are his statlines. Last year he was unquestionably Hasselbeck's favorite WR, and that connection is heating up again. This week Britt faces an atrocious Buffalo secondary that gave up 200 yards to the Niners' and Jets' receivers. Buffalo has also given up at least one TD to every receiving corp they've encountered.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Week 6: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Richardson crushed Cincy in their meeting four weeks ago (145 total yards, 2 TDs), and the match-up is even more favorable this time around. Since Cleveland's defense is back to full strength, expect the running game to churn as Brandon Weeden doesn't have to sling the ball to catch up.
2. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin (QB & WR - MIN)
Keep an eye on Harvin's status--as I write this he's questionable--but this match-up has "Season High" written all over it for both guys. The Redskins are the official punching bag for passing offenses, and if this thing ends up as a shootout (see: if RG3 shows up healthy), it'll rain fantasy points.
3. Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)
Anyone reading this could outcoach Norv Turner, but at least the Norvster wised up on Sunday night and handed Mathews a full workload. Mathews looked fresh and electric, and this week he's going against a Denver defense that is giving up 16 PPG to RBs. Ride Mathews while he's healthy.
Bums:
1. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
Green had 7 catches for 58 yards and a TD against them four weeks ago, so what could go wrong? Well, the return of shutdown corner Joe Haden. After a four-game suspension, he's rested and eager to eliminate Green from Cincy's offensive scheme. And with Haden back, Cleveland's defense can go back to playing like they did in Week 1 against Philly. The Browns should be a force this week (did I really just type that?), so expect an awkward statline from Andy Dandy as well.
2. The Rams and Dolphins Offenses (All of them)
The Dolphins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, the Rams have only allowed two passing TDs all season, Sam Bradford's top target (Amendola) is out for the next few weeks, Reggie Bush is banged up, you can't trust any Rams or Dolphins passcatcher, there's just too much to hate here. This game has the feel of a 13-6 snorefest where Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson crash into defensive lineman for sixty minutes. Start Defenses and Kickers only.
3. Tom Brady (QB - NE)
I'm not suggesting you sit him in a normal league, but if you're considering him in a weekly league, stop. Seattle. Pro Bowl secondary. I say it every week.
Sleepers:
1. Brady Quinn (QB - KC)
I'm a Notre Dame fan, so there's some wishful bias to this pick, but Quinn looked decent in relief of Cassel last week. He went 3-for-3 and had a TD pass to Dwayne Bowe called back. This was against the Ravens in a tight contest. Now he faces Tampa's awful secondary, and I don't think 200 yards and 2 TDs sounds unreasonable.
2. Brandon Gibson (WR - STL)
Yeah, I know I just trashed the Rams in my Bums section, but if you're digging for a sleeper WR, you could do worse than Gibson, who is now the team's top wideout. And since Miami is staunch against the run, Bradford will generate whatever offense they can muster.
3. Vic Ballard (RB - IND)
Don Brown is out for the next three weeks, so Vic Ballard assumes the starting role. Don't go crazy trusting him--he's averaging 2 yards per carry, Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter crowd the backfield, and the Colts are a passing team--but if you need a prayer at RB, go for it. Ballard is dirt cheap in salary leagues since he wasn't announced as the starter until Wednesday.
1. Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Richardson crushed Cincy in their meeting four weeks ago (145 total yards, 2 TDs), and the match-up is even more favorable this time around. Since Cleveland's defense is back to full strength, expect the running game to churn as Brandon Weeden doesn't have to sling the ball to catch up.
2. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin (QB & WR - MIN)
Keep an eye on Harvin's status--as I write this he's questionable--but this match-up has "Season High" written all over it for both guys. The Redskins are the official punching bag for passing offenses, and if this thing ends up as a shootout (see: if RG3 shows up healthy), it'll rain fantasy points.
3. Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)
Anyone reading this could outcoach Norv Turner, but at least the Norvster wised up on Sunday night and handed Mathews a full workload. Mathews looked fresh and electric, and this week he's going against a Denver defense that is giving up 16 PPG to RBs. Ride Mathews while he's healthy.
Bums:
1. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
Green had 7 catches for 58 yards and a TD against them four weeks ago, so what could go wrong? Well, the return of shutdown corner Joe Haden. After a four-game suspension, he's rested and eager to eliminate Green from Cincy's offensive scheme. And with Haden back, Cleveland's defense can go back to playing like they did in Week 1 against Philly. The Browns should be a force this week (did I really just type that?), so expect an awkward statline from Andy Dandy as well.
2. The Rams and Dolphins Offenses (All of them)
The Dolphins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, the Rams have only allowed two passing TDs all season, Sam Bradford's top target (Amendola) is out for the next few weeks, Reggie Bush is banged up, you can't trust any Rams or Dolphins passcatcher, there's just too much to hate here. This game has the feel of a 13-6 snorefest where Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson crash into defensive lineman for sixty minutes. Start Defenses and Kickers only.
3. Tom Brady (QB - NE)
I'm not suggesting you sit him in a normal league, but if you're considering him in a weekly league, stop. Seattle. Pro Bowl secondary. I say it every week.
Sleepers:
1. Brady Quinn (QB - KC)
I'm a Notre Dame fan, so there's some wishful bias to this pick, but Quinn looked decent in relief of Cassel last week. He went 3-for-3 and had a TD pass to Dwayne Bowe called back. This was against the Ravens in a tight contest. Now he faces Tampa's awful secondary, and I don't think 200 yards and 2 TDs sounds unreasonable.
2. Brandon Gibson (WR - STL)
Yeah, I know I just trashed the Rams in my Bums section, but if you're digging for a sleeper WR, you could do worse than Gibson, who is now the team's top wideout. And since Miami is staunch against the run, Bradford will generate whatever offense they can muster.
3. Vic Ballard (RB - IND)
Don Brown is out for the next three weeks, so Vic Ballard assumes the starting role. Don't go crazy trusting him--he's averaging 2 yards per carry, Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter crowd the backfield, and the Colts are a passing team--but if you need a prayer at RB, go for it. Ballard is dirt cheap in salary leagues since he wasn't announced as the starter until Wednesday.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Week 5: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
When you're down big, you throw often, and Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up for four quarters on Sunday. Reggie Wayne is unquestionably his favorite target, and he's headed for a stat-line reminiscent of the Manning era. Expect triple-figure yardage and two TDs against a defense that gave up 42 fantasy points to wide receivers last week.
2. Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte (RBs - SEA and CHI)
I like them both for the same reason: uninspired QB play on their end and bad rushing defenses on their opponents' end. Lynch gets Carolina's 30th-ranked fantasy rush defense while Forte faces 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers got whallopped by Andre Brown and washed-up Michael Turner in consecutive weeks, and my Jags practically welcome RBs into the endzone. I'm a tad concerned with Seattle playing away from home and with Forte still recovering from an ankle injury, but the match-ups are too juicy to avoid.
3. Matt Hasselbeck (QB - TEN)
Faces a rotten Vikings secondary in a game where he has a ton to prove. If Kenny Britt was healthy, I'd like Hasselbeck even more, but the Bald Bomber should make due with Nate Washington, Jared Cook, and Kendall Wright. Keep in mind that Hasselbeck looked Jared Cook's way often at the end of last season. Cook has been quiet since Locker took the helm, but that will change on Sunday.
Bums:
1. Cam Newton and Steve Smith (QB and WR - CAR)
They face the Seahawks secondary, which somehow hurts aerial attacks more than gravity. Cam might be safe if he can garner some rushing yards, but under no circumstances should you trust Smitty this week. There are three Pro-Bowl-caliber reasons not to.
2. Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
His "breakout" last week came in garbage time, and now he faces the best run defense on his schedule in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that Minnesota's secondary is their weakness, and you have a classic CJ0K egg waiting to be laid.
3. Michael Turner (RB - ATL)
The fact that Michael Turner scored on a long catch and run last week was miraculous. Too bad his unearthly game against Carolina will be a distant memory once he faces a Skins D that is ranked 10th against fantasy RBs. Matt Ryan will go crazy against the Skins' 32nd-ranked secondary, and with Julio healthy again, I can't envision a scenario where Turner gets more than 7 or 8 points.
Sleepers:
1. Domenick Hixon (WR - NYG)
Nick is out, Barden is out, and the Giants won't have any trouble throwing against a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary. Expect Hixon to go nuts when Cruz draws inevitable double-coverage.
2. Jermaine Gresham (TE - CIN)
You can't run on the Dolphins. Even if you're Darren McFadden. But you can throw on them. Even if you're Kevin Kolb, who tossed 3TDs and garnered 324 yards through the air on Sunday. So shouldn't Andy Dandy be able to at least match that Kolb stat line? And in whose hands do his 3TDs end up? A.J. Green, most likely. Then I can see Andrew Hawkins and Gresham grabbing the rest.
3. Kendall Hunter (RB - SF)
Last week the Bills got absolute PAVED by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. 100+ yards a piece. Yowza. Frank Gore will get his, but once this one gets out of hand, I can see Kendall Hunter putting up somewhere around 80 yards and a TD. I'd love Hunter even more if Brandon Jacobs wasn't slated to return from injury.
1. Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
When you're down big, you throw often, and Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up for four quarters on Sunday. Reggie Wayne is unquestionably his favorite target, and he's headed for a stat-line reminiscent of the Manning era. Expect triple-figure yardage and two TDs against a defense that gave up 42 fantasy points to wide receivers last week.
2. Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte (RBs - SEA and CHI)
I like them both for the same reason: uninspired QB play on their end and bad rushing defenses on their opponents' end. Lynch gets Carolina's 30th-ranked fantasy rush defense while Forte faces 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers got whallopped by Andre Brown and washed-up Michael Turner in consecutive weeks, and my Jags practically welcome RBs into the endzone. I'm a tad concerned with Seattle playing away from home and with Forte still recovering from an ankle injury, but the match-ups are too juicy to avoid.
3. Matt Hasselbeck (QB - TEN)
Faces a rotten Vikings secondary in a game where he has a ton to prove. If Kenny Britt was healthy, I'd like Hasselbeck even more, but the Bald Bomber should make due with Nate Washington, Jared Cook, and Kendall Wright. Keep in mind that Hasselbeck looked Jared Cook's way often at the end of last season. Cook has been quiet since Locker took the helm, but that will change on Sunday.
Bums:
1. Cam Newton and Steve Smith (QB and WR - CAR)
They face the Seahawks secondary, which somehow hurts aerial attacks more than gravity. Cam might be safe if he can garner some rushing yards, but under no circumstances should you trust Smitty this week. There are three Pro-Bowl-caliber reasons not to.
2. Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
His "breakout" last week came in garbage time, and now he faces the best run defense on his schedule in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that Minnesota's secondary is their weakness, and you have a classic CJ0K egg waiting to be laid.
3. Michael Turner (RB - ATL)
The fact that Michael Turner scored on a long catch and run last week was miraculous. Too bad his unearthly game against Carolina will be a distant memory once he faces a Skins D that is ranked 10th against fantasy RBs. Matt Ryan will go crazy against the Skins' 32nd-ranked secondary, and with Julio healthy again, I can't envision a scenario where Turner gets more than 7 or 8 points.
Sleepers:
1. Domenick Hixon (WR - NYG)
Nick is out, Barden is out, and the Giants won't have any trouble throwing against a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary. Expect Hixon to go nuts when Cruz draws inevitable double-coverage.
2. Jermaine Gresham (TE - CIN)
You can't run on the Dolphins. Even if you're Darren McFadden. But you can throw on them. Even if you're Kevin Kolb, who tossed 3TDs and garnered 324 yards through the air on Sunday. So shouldn't Andy Dandy be able to at least match that Kolb stat line? And in whose hands do his 3TDs end up? A.J. Green, most likely. Then I can see Andrew Hawkins and Gresham grabbing the rest.
3. Kendall Hunter (RB - SF)
Last week the Bills got absolute PAVED by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. 100+ yards a piece. Yowza. Frank Gore will get his, but once this one gets out of hand, I can see Kendall Hunter putting up somewhere around 80 yards and a TD. I'd love Hunter even more if Brandon Jacobs wasn't slated to return from injury.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Beware the Thursday Night Game
Thursday Night Football... what a concept. Exhausted players, low-quality competition, and letdowns galore in fantasy land. Just look at this season's first three Thursday night games. Likely shootouts lulled us to sleep (Bears/Packers, Giants/Panthers); stud QBs turned into Ty Detmer before our very eyes (Cutler, Newton), and top 10 draft picks posted 10th rounder performances (Rice, Rodgers). With offenses underperforming every week, it's becoming harder to trust guys who are automatic every Sunday. So should you start sitting your tired, weary, ill-prepared Thursday night guys?
As far as skill players go, I'd say yes--but only if you have a solid alternative. Consider this:
- Ray Rice came into last Thursday's match-up against the Browns averaging 18 PPG, and he left with 8 points in a standard league (against the Browns!).
- Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined for 12 points in Week 2. On Sundays and Mondays? They average a combined 23 points--nearly double.
- Cam Newton averages over 50 yards rushing in Sunday games this year. On Thursday night against the Giants, you ask? 6 yards.
Obviously, most of the guys I mentioned are studs, and in traditional leagues you'd be a fool to bench them. But if you're on the fence about Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson this week, you might want to take a second glance at your bench.
Thursday night games play out in one of two ways. You either have 1) a defensive struggle where both under-prepared offenses sputter, or 2) a mismatch where the better teams romps, usually while tacking on a bunch of FGs. In the past we used to blame disappointing Thursday night games on the fact that they were played late in the season. Now, after three September bummers, there's no excuse: Thursday night is bad for football and worse for fantasy skill players.
Now, defenses are another story. Defenses THRIVE on Thursday. Green Bay's defense destroyed Chicago's offensive line en route to 21 fantasy points in a standard league. In that same game, Chicago posted a solid 9 points against one of the league's premiere offenses. As for the Giants, their defense posted a whopping 15 points; in their other three games they racked in 5 points total. And last week, Baltimore posted their first respectable showing since their season opener.
One more stat for you: 19, 21, 21. Those are the combined totals for Thursday kickers in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, respectively. In Week 2, Lawrence Tynes outscored Eli Manning by 5 points, just days after Eli threw for 500+ yards against the Bucs. Yikes.
As for tonight's game, I'm on board with the Cardinals D/ST, Rams D/ST, Greg Zuerlein, and Jay Feely. Can't you picture Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb trading three-and-outs all night long? Can't you see defenders rolling on top of those guys in the backfield? Can't you picture Jeff Fisher shaking his head on the sidelines while Ken Whisenhunt fist-pumps after a 45-yarder from Jay Feely? It's gonna be one of those types of games. Just another Thursday.
As far as skill players go, I'd say yes--but only if you have a solid alternative. Consider this:
- Ray Rice came into last Thursday's match-up against the Browns averaging 18 PPG, and he left with 8 points in a standard league (against the Browns!).
- Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined for 12 points in Week 2. On Sundays and Mondays? They average a combined 23 points--nearly double.
- Cam Newton averages over 50 yards rushing in Sunday games this year. On Thursday night against the Giants, you ask? 6 yards.
Obviously, most of the guys I mentioned are studs, and in traditional leagues you'd be a fool to bench them. But if you're on the fence about Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson this week, you might want to take a second glance at your bench.
Thursday night games play out in one of two ways. You either have 1) a defensive struggle where both under-prepared offenses sputter, or 2) a mismatch where the better teams romps, usually while tacking on a bunch of FGs. In the past we used to blame disappointing Thursday night games on the fact that they were played late in the season. Now, after three September bummers, there's no excuse: Thursday night is bad for football and worse for fantasy skill players.
Now, defenses are another story. Defenses THRIVE on Thursday. Green Bay's defense destroyed Chicago's offensive line en route to 21 fantasy points in a standard league. In that same game, Chicago posted a solid 9 points against one of the league's premiere offenses. As for the Giants, their defense posted a whopping 15 points; in their other three games they racked in 5 points total. And last week, Baltimore posted their first respectable showing since their season opener.
One more stat for you: 19, 21, 21. Those are the combined totals for Thursday kickers in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, respectively. In Week 2, Lawrence Tynes outscored Eli Manning by 5 points, just days after Eli threw for 500+ yards against the Bucs. Yikes.
As for tonight's game, I'm on board with the Cardinals D/ST, Rams D/ST, Greg Zuerlein, and Jay Feely. Can't you picture Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb trading three-and-outs all night long? Can't you see defenders rolling on top of those guys in the backfield? Can't you picture Jeff Fisher shaking his head on the sidelines while Ken Whisenhunt fist-pumps after a 45-yarder from Jay Feely? It's gonna be one of those types of games. Just another Thursday.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Week 4: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Percy Harvin (WR - MIN) and Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm listing these guys together because I like them for the same reason: They're going up against two soft passing defenses (Detroit and Oakland, respectively), and both of these guys are ready to pop. We're three weeks into the season and Percy Harvin has literally done everything we've expected aside from scoring a TD and suffering from migraines. As for Decker, he leads the team in catches and receiving yardage, yet he somehow hasn't grabbed a six-pointer this season. This week he faces a second-string Oakland secondary, and Percy-big-play-Harvin faces a Lions team that gave up five (5!) big play TDs last week against the Titans. So expect both Harvin and Decker to post solid numbers and crash the TD column this week.
2. Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
V-Jax has been fickle throughout his career, but if there's one constant this season, it's that you can throw on the Redskins--whether you're Drew Brees, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, or... Mohamed Sanu. And since I'd stick Josh Freeman somewhere between Bradford and Dalton (both of whom chucked 3 TDs against the Skins), you can expect 3 TDs from Freeman--with at least one going to a V-Jax who nearly starved in Dallas last week.
Bums:
1. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
He's hurt, he's reckless, and he's playing the Cardinals. And that's IF he plays. And IF he does, he'll be facing a defense that hasn't surrendered a 100-yd game or a rushing TD this season.
2. Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
He erupted last week, but it was against the worst rushing defense in the league. Plus, the all-new Healthy Jamaal Charles won't surprise the Chargers, who are undoubtedly focusing their entire defensive gameplan on suppressing J-Mail. Keep in mind that in Weeks 1 and 2 (when the Chargers held the lead), they limited opposing RBs to less than 50 yards in both games. I expect them to go up early and keep one eye on J-Mail at all times.
3. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
The Jags' defense is a cracked shell of its 2011 self. Running backs graze in the endzone, rookie wideouts post monster days, and turnovers are practically unheard of. Yet for whatever reason the Jags's defense keeps No. 1 WRs in check. Percy Harvin was virtually silent in the first half of Week 1, Andre Johnson ceased to exist in Week 2, and Reggie Wayne failed to break double-digit fantasy points for the first time this season in Week 3. A lot of this has to do with the Jags' utterly abysmal run defense, and we can expect a heavy dose of the Law Firm this week. As for A.J., expect pedestrian numbers.
Sleepers:
1. Alex Smith (QB - SF)
I have no idea which lucky Niner receivers will catch TDs from Alex Smith this weekend, but I do know that Darrelle Revis cannot cover them from the sideline.
2. Jerome Simpson (WR - MIN)
Because Christian Ponder has to throw to somebody other than Harvin and Rudolph. Jerome Simpson's coming off a suspension, not an injury, so expect him to immediately establish himself at the No. 2 wideout in an underrated passing attack that gets a soft match-up against the Lions.
3. Ronnie Hillman (RB - DEN)
This depends entirely on whether or not McGahee plays, but I don't like Lance Ball as a feature back. Even for one week. Even against the Raiders. And if you're the Broncos, why wouldn't you give your speedy 3rd Round draft pick a test drive against Oakland's horrid defense?
1. Percy Harvin (WR - MIN) and Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm listing these guys together because I like them for the same reason: They're going up against two soft passing defenses (Detroit and Oakland, respectively), and both of these guys are ready to pop. We're three weeks into the season and Percy Harvin has literally done everything we've expected aside from scoring a TD and suffering from migraines. As for Decker, he leads the team in catches and receiving yardage, yet he somehow hasn't grabbed a six-pointer this season. This week he faces a second-string Oakland secondary, and Percy-big-play-Harvin faces a Lions team that gave up five (5!) big play TDs last week against the Titans. So expect both Harvin and Decker to post solid numbers and crash the TD column this week.
2. Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
V-Jax has been fickle throughout his career, but if there's one constant this season, it's that you can throw on the Redskins--whether you're Drew Brees, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, or... Mohamed Sanu. And since I'd stick Josh Freeman somewhere between Bradford and Dalton (both of whom chucked 3 TDs against the Skins), you can expect 3 TDs from Freeman--with at least one going to a V-Jax who nearly starved in Dallas last week.
Bums:
1. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
He's hurt, he's reckless, and he's playing the Cardinals. And that's IF he plays. And IF he does, he'll be facing a defense that hasn't surrendered a 100-yd game or a rushing TD this season.
2. Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
He erupted last week, but it was against the worst rushing defense in the league. Plus, the all-new Healthy Jamaal Charles won't surprise the Chargers, who are undoubtedly focusing their entire defensive gameplan on suppressing J-Mail. Keep in mind that in Weeks 1 and 2 (when the Chargers held the lead), they limited opposing RBs to less than 50 yards in both games. I expect them to go up early and keep one eye on J-Mail at all times.
3. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
The Jags' defense is a cracked shell of its 2011 self. Running backs graze in the endzone, rookie wideouts post monster days, and turnovers are practically unheard of. Yet for whatever reason the Jags's defense keeps No. 1 WRs in check. Percy Harvin was virtually silent in the first half of Week 1, Andre Johnson ceased to exist in Week 2, and Reggie Wayne failed to break double-digit fantasy points for the first time this season in Week 3. A lot of this has to do with the Jags' utterly abysmal run defense, and we can expect a heavy dose of the Law Firm this week. As for A.J., expect pedestrian numbers.
Sleepers:
1. Alex Smith (QB - SF)
I have no idea which lucky Niner receivers will catch TDs from Alex Smith this weekend, but I do know that Darrelle Revis cannot cover them from the sideline.
2. Jerome Simpson (WR - MIN)
Because Christian Ponder has to throw to somebody other than Harvin and Rudolph. Jerome Simpson's coming off a suspension, not an injury, so expect him to immediately establish himself at the No. 2 wideout in an underrated passing attack that gets a soft match-up against the Lions.
3. Ronnie Hillman (RB - DEN)
This depends entirely on whether or not McGahee plays, but I don't like Lance Ball as a feature back. Even for one week. Even against the Raiders. And if you're the Broncos, why wouldn't you give your speedy 3rd Round draft pick a test drive against Oakland's horrid defense?
Monday, September 24, 2012
"Hope You Started Him": Week 3 Surprises
Between the refs, the Cards, and the fact that the Patriots lost two straight games for the first time since my high school days, I'm not sure what to make of this NFL season. It's a mess, it's 2012, the end is nigh, etc. And if there's any sure sign of the apocalypse, can I nominate Carson Palmer's three straight games of 17+ fantasy points? Does the world automatically end if he hits the #1 overall QB peak at some point this season? I hope so. At least it's reassuring that I rack up more yards walking to the mailbox than Chris Johnson does in sixty minutes of football. Sure hope you didn't draft him. But I hope you started these guys:
1. Arizona Cardinals Defense
They're not a huge surprise, but I doubted them up until yesterday. Now I'm sold. 5 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, and a TD to go along with it. Plus, they only gave up 6 points. We've found this year's top defense, and check out the next few games for the Cards: Miami, @ St. Louis, Buffalo, @ Minnesota. If you're like me and you play defenses from week-to-week, you can snatch up the Cards D and ride them out for the next month.
2. Mikel Leshoure (RB - Lions)
The Lions gave Leshoure the start yesterday, and he ran wild for triple-figures and even grabbed 4 balls for 34 yards. Hard not to love that kind of production, but before you start lusting over him and offering up guys like Roddy White and Jordy Nelson as trade bait, consider this: Leshoure had a big day against the same Titans team that Stevan Ridley and Jackie Battle wrecked in the past two weeks. Stevan Ridley is now homeless, and Jackie Battle may be lucky to scrape by as a goalline back. Plus, keep in min that no team has thrown more than the Lions in the past two seasons. So I'd say temper your expectations for the Lions new starter, as he's not a "shoure" thing yet (har har). If anything, I'd advise trying to trade him for a mid-level receiver--maybe you can catch a Percy Harvin owner napping.
3. Ramses Barden (WR - NYG)
We've seen this movie before. It came out last year packaged as "Victor Cruz." This year's heartwarming tale about a no-name Giants wideout stars Ramses Barden, and before you downplay the guys performance, consider that he had TEN targets on Thursday night. And he caught nine of them. Now, with the way Hakeem Nicks keeps heading in and out of the emergency room, it's realistic for Barden to see some time this year. And even if Nicks and Cruz stay healthy, Barden could fit as a nice flex guy (remember, Eli fed three WRs last year). Grab him, stash him on the bench, see what happens.
1. Arizona Cardinals Defense
They're not a huge surprise, but I doubted them up until yesterday. Now I'm sold. 5 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, and a TD to go along with it. Plus, they only gave up 6 points. We've found this year's top defense, and check out the next few games for the Cards: Miami, @ St. Louis, Buffalo, @ Minnesota. If you're like me and you play defenses from week-to-week, you can snatch up the Cards D and ride them out for the next month.
2. Mikel Leshoure (RB - Lions)
The Lions gave Leshoure the start yesterday, and he ran wild for triple-figures and even grabbed 4 balls for 34 yards. Hard not to love that kind of production, but before you start lusting over him and offering up guys like Roddy White and Jordy Nelson as trade bait, consider this: Leshoure had a big day against the same Titans team that Stevan Ridley and Jackie Battle wrecked in the past two weeks. Stevan Ridley is now homeless, and Jackie Battle may be lucky to scrape by as a goalline back. Plus, keep in min that no team has thrown more than the Lions in the past two seasons. So I'd say temper your expectations for the Lions new starter, as he's not a "shoure" thing yet (har har). If anything, I'd advise trying to trade him for a mid-level receiver--maybe you can catch a Percy Harvin owner napping.
3. Ramses Barden (WR - NYG)
We've seen this movie before. It came out last year packaged as "Victor Cruz." This year's heartwarming tale about a no-name Giants wideout stars Ramses Barden, and before you downplay the guys performance, consider that he had TEN targets on Thursday night. And he caught nine of them. Now, with the way Hakeem Nicks keeps heading in and out of the emergency room, it's realistic for Barden to see some time this year. And even if Nicks and Cruz stay healthy, Barden could fit as a nice flex guy (remember, Eli fed three WRs last year). Grab him, stash him on the bench, see what happens.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Week 3: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC)
I wouldn't be surprised if both defensive coordinators were fired after this one. On one end you have Drew Brees gunning down a soft Chiefs secondary, and on the other you have Matt Cassel working his magic in garbage time. And when Cassel's on trash duty, who's he going to throw to? Dwayne Bowe, good guess. Both teams are giving up 35 PPG (that's 5 TDs), and I expect Bowe to catch two scores and rack up triple-digit yardage. And while you're at it, start as many Chiefs and Saints as you can--Matt Cassel should finish in the top ten this week, and even guys like Peyton Hillis and Pierre Thomas are worth a start.
2. Martellus Bennett (TE - NYG)
Let's say you're the Panthers' defensive coordinator. You know Hakeem Nicks is out, as are Ahmad Bradshaw and Dominick Hixon. That leaves Victor Cruz as the only real threat on offense for the Giants. Now, if you're heading Carolina's defense tonight, wouldn't you tell your guys to zone in on that Cruz fella? Wouldn't you post pictures of Cruz all over the locker room with the caption "No Salsa Dances"? Exactly, and while Cruz is double-covered and the rest of the Giants receiving corps is at the hospital, you can expect 90 yards and a TD from a sneaky Martellus Bennett.
3. Donald Brown (RB - IND)
The Jags are basically inviting running backs into the endzone. They've allowed five rushing TDs in two games, which is an embarrassment considering how staunch they were against the run last season. Injuries to Daryl Smith and Clint Session wrecked what was a solid defense. And with Blaine Gabbert regressing to 2011 form, you can expect the Colts to be up comfortably and pounding the rock with Don Brown in the second half.
Bums:
1. Andre Johnson (WR - HOU)
Last week Matt Schaub dinked and dunked and checked down every time he dropped back to throw. Andre ended up with a three catches for a staggering 21 yards. This was against the Jaguars, whose defense was in shambles with Daryl Smith injured. This week AJ has to line up opposite Champ Bailey for four quarters, and there's no one else in the passing game to draw attention away from Andre. Oh, and the Texans like to utilize these two guys named Ben and Arian as much as possible.
2. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
I'm not buying. Bush blew up a Raiders defense that (a) wore black jerseys in Florida heat, (b) traveled across the country on six-day's rest, and (c) sleepwalked through a 1 pm game in an earlier time zone. The Raiders are garbage to begin with, and last week they had every reason to be tired. Now Reggie goes up against a superior Rex Ryan defense that will undoubtedly key in on him.
3. Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
I'm hitting the panic button on Manning this week. Not only did he look terrible on Monday night, it appeared he won't be able to throw downfield for a while. Even the deep Manning passes that weren't intercepted looked ugly, and I'm sure Wade Phillips is drawing up a defensive gameplan that'll shut down the underneath routes. He'd be stupid not to. And even if Manning showed no sign of weakness, I'd still recommend treading carefully against the Texans D on six-day's rest.
Sleepers:
1. Peyton Hillis (RB - KC)
It'll be raining fantasy points in New Orleans, and I don't expect Hillis stay dry. He fumbled at the goalline last week, but I say he punches it this time against a team that has given up 4 TDs to running backs so far. Expect a solid game from Hillis to the tune of 70 total yards and a TD.
2. Sam Bradford (QB - STL)
Popular opinion suggest that the Bears are going to crush the Rams, but I think this will be a close one. Bradford threw for 3 TDs last week, and the Bears are soft in the secondary (allowing 254 yards per game). I could easily see Bradford chucking a couple touchdowns, especially if the Rams have to play from behind.
1. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC)
I wouldn't be surprised if both defensive coordinators were fired after this one. On one end you have Drew Brees gunning down a soft Chiefs secondary, and on the other you have Matt Cassel working his magic in garbage time. And when Cassel's on trash duty, who's he going to throw to? Dwayne Bowe, good guess. Both teams are giving up 35 PPG (that's 5 TDs), and I expect Bowe to catch two scores and rack up triple-digit yardage. And while you're at it, start as many Chiefs and Saints as you can--Matt Cassel should finish in the top ten this week, and even guys like Peyton Hillis and Pierre Thomas are worth a start.
2. Martellus Bennett (TE - NYG)
Let's say you're the Panthers' defensive coordinator. You know Hakeem Nicks is out, as are Ahmad Bradshaw and Dominick Hixon. That leaves Victor Cruz as the only real threat on offense for the Giants. Now, if you're heading Carolina's defense tonight, wouldn't you tell your guys to zone in on that Cruz fella? Wouldn't you post pictures of Cruz all over the locker room with the caption "No Salsa Dances"? Exactly, and while Cruz is double-covered and the rest of the Giants receiving corps is at the hospital, you can expect 90 yards and a TD from a sneaky Martellus Bennett.
3. Donald Brown (RB - IND)
The Jags are basically inviting running backs into the endzone. They've allowed five rushing TDs in two games, which is an embarrassment considering how staunch they were against the run last season. Injuries to Daryl Smith and Clint Session wrecked what was a solid defense. And with Blaine Gabbert regressing to 2011 form, you can expect the Colts to be up comfortably and pounding the rock with Don Brown in the second half.
Bums:
1. Andre Johnson (WR - HOU)
Last week Matt Schaub dinked and dunked and checked down every time he dropped back to throw. Andre ended up with a three catches for a staggering 21 yards. This was against the Jaguars, whose defense was in shambles with Daryl Smith injured. This week AJ has to line up opposite Champ Bailey for four quarters, and there's no one else in the passing game to draw attention away from Andre. Oh, and the Texans like to utilize these two guys named Ben and Arian as much as possible.
2. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
I'm not buying. Bush blew up a Raiders defense that (a) wore black jerseys in Florida heat, (b) traveled across the country on six-day's rest, and (c) sleepwalked through a 1 pm game in an earlier time zone. The Raiders are garbage to begin with, and last week they had every reason to be tired. Now Reggie goes up against a superior Rex Ryan defense that will undoubtedly key in on him.
3. Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
I'm hitting the panic button on Manning this week. Not only did he look terrible on Monday night, it appeared he won't be able to throw downfield for a while. Even the deep Manning passes that weren't intercepted looked ugly, and I'm sure Wade Phillips is drawing up a defensive gameplan that'll shut down the underneath routes. He'd be stupid not to. And even if Manning showed no sign of weakness, I'd still recommend treading carefully against the Texans D on six-day's rest.
Sleepers:
1. Peyton Hillis (RB - KC)
It'll be raining fantasy points in New Orleans, and I don't expect Hillis stay dry. He fumbled at the goalline last week, but I say he punches it this time against a team that has given up 4 TDs to running backs so far. Expect a solid game from Hillis to the tune of 70 total yards and a TD.
2. Sam Bradford (QB - STL)
Popular opinion suggest that the Bears are going to crush the Rams, but I think this will be a close one. Bradford threw for 3 TDs last week, and the Bears are soft in the secondary (allowing 254 yards per game). I could easily see Bradford chucking a couple touchdowns, especially if the Rams have to play from behind.
Monday, September 17, 2012
"Hope You Started Him": Week 2 Surprises
A mind-boggling Week 2 (seriously, how many Eliminator/Last Man Standing entries got crushed by the Cards this week?) is almost in the books, so it's time to sift through all the eggs that Run-DMC and CJ0K laid and check out a few unsung guys who ripped off nice stat lines.
Sam Bradford (QB - Rams): 26/35, 310 YDS, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even if Bradford tossed seven TDs, he'd still be the most overpaid draft pick not named JaMarcus, but that's another story. Yesterday he posted an elite fantasy statline en route to the Rams' first win in thirty-six games--well, close enough. Last week I said I liked the Rams secondary (which held RG3 to only one passing TD and 206 passing yards), but I never expected this kind of performance from their offense. With the Rams looking like a Wild Card contender, you could do worse than to stash Bradford on your bench or start him in a weekly salary league. The only concern with Bradford is his obsession with Danny Amendola. Sam the Ram targeted Danny Am a whopping 16 times yesterday. The rest of the team garnered 19 targets, and no other receiver had more than four. So my question is: what happens when defenses key on shutting down Amendola? Can Bradford thrive when he's chucking to Brandon Gibson and The Lesser Steve Smith? Tell you what, worry about that when the time comes. Snag Bradford and Amendola while you can.
Andrew Hawkins (WR - Bengals): 2 REC, 56YDS, 1TD
For the second week straight Andrew Hawkins posted a sneaky-good fantasy line. This time, Hawkins caught a pass from Dalton, performed a series of Madden-moves, and hustled into the endzone. What's not to love? How about the fact that Hawkins would've netted you 1 catch for 6 yards without that late TD? Hawkins is explosive and fun to watch, but A.J. Green is the primary target in this offense, and beyond that you're stuck playing guessing games with Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, and Hawkins.
Jackie Battle (RB - Chargers): 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TDS
If you're a Ryan Mathews owner, you want Jackie Battle dead, immediately. Battle punched in two TDs from the 1 yard-line yesterday, suggesting that he might be the goalline back for the Chargers from here on. Mathews will be the focus of the running game when he returns, but it's realistic to hope for 30 yards and a score from Jackie Battle, who posted boring, pedestrian numbers in the Chiefs offense last year. Don't fall in love with Jackie Battle, but if you've got room on your bench or need a cheap RB in a salary league, by all means enlist Battle.
Sam Bradford (QB - Rams): 26/35, 310 YDS, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even if Bradford tossed seven TDs, he'd still be the most overpaid draft pick not named JaMarcus, but that's another story. Yesterday he posted an elite fantasy statline en route to the Rams' first win in thirty-six games--well, close enough. Last week I said I liked the Rams secondary (which held RG3 to only one passing TD and 206 passing yards), but I never expected this kind of performance from their offense. With the Rams looking like a Wild Card contender, you could do worse than to stash Bradford on your bench or start him in a weekly salary league. The only concern with Bradford is his obsession with Danny Amendola. Sam the Ram targeted Danny Am a whopping 16 times yesterday. The rest of the team garnered 19 targets, and no other receiver had more than four. So my question is: what happens when defenses key on shutting down Amendola? Can Bradford thrive when he's chucking to Brandon Gibson and The Lesser Steve Smith? Tell you what, worry about that when the time comes. Snag Bradford and Amendola while you can.
Andrew Hawkins (WR - Bengals): 2 REC, 56YDS, 1TD
For the second week straight Andrew Hawkins posted a sneaky-good fantasy line. This time, Hawkins caught a pass from Dalton, performed a series of Madden-moves, and hustled into the endzone. What's not to love? How about the fact that Hawkins would've netted you 1 catch for 6 yards without that late TD? Hawkins is explosive and fun to watch, but A.J. Green is the primary target in this offense, and beyond that you're stuck playing guessing games with Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, and Hawkins.
Jackie Battle (RB - Chargers): 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TDS
If you're a Ryan Mathews owner, you want Jackie Battle dead, immediately. Battle punched in two TDs from the 1 yard-line yesterday, suggesting that he might be the goalline back for the Chargers from here on. Mathews will be the focus of the running game when he returns, but it's realistic to hope for 30 yards and a score from Jackie Battle, who posted boring, pedestrian numbers in the Chiefs offense last year. Don't fall in love with Jackie Battle, but if you've got room on your bench or need a cheap RB in a salary league, by all means enlist Battle.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Fantasy Triangle, Week 2: Bengals
A Fantasy Triangle isn't as dirty as it sounds. This week's concern is the Andy Dalton/BenJarvis Green-Ellis/ A.J. Green point distribution. After a Monday night beatdown in Baltimore, Cincy has a softer match-up this week against a Joe Haden-less Browns defense. Everyone in the continental U.S. knows that Cleveland has nothing resembling an offense, so we could be looking at a final score of 27-3. The biggest worry for Cincy fantasy starters (other than a helmet-cracking defensive struggle) is that the game gets so out of hand that Marvin Lewis starts sitting guys in the 4th quarter.
That being said, it's easy to love Green-Ellis this week, with average payouts going to Dalton and Green. For as impressive as Cleveland looked on defense last week, Joe Haden's absence will hit the Browns with a domino effect. A.J. Green won't get stuck in Shutdown City, but he could draw plenty of extra attention if Andrew Hawkins can't keep the secondary honest. Regardless, Green should nab his first TD of the season along with 70 yards receiving. Pencil in Andy Dandy for 2 TDs and 215 yards while we're at it. As for the Law Firm, expect him to top his healthy yardage total from Monday and add another TD. I'm tempted to mark him down for 2 TDs, but Cleveland should force a few FGs. Either way, expect fatal dosages of Green-Ellis in the second half.
Bottom line: Law Firm impresses, Andy Dandy puts up decent numbers, Green gets a TD on the board but stays quiet otherwise.
And with the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select...
That being said, it's easy to love Green-Ellis this week, with average payouts going to Dalton and Green. For as impressive as Cleveland looked on defense last week, Joe Haden's absence will hit the Browns with a domino effect. A.J. Green won't get stuck in Shutdown City, but he could draw plenty of extra attention if Andrew Hawkins can't keep the secondary honest. Regardless, Green should nab his first TD of the season along with 70 yards receiving. Pencil in Andy Dandy for 2 TDs and 215 yards while we're at it. As for the Law Firm, expect him to top his healthy yardage total from Monday and add another TD. I'm tempted to mark him down for 2 TDs, but Cleveland should force a few FGs. Either way, expect fatal dosages of Green-Ellis in the second half.
Bottom line: Law Firm impresses, Andy Dandy puts up decent numbers, Green gets a TD on the board but stays quiet otherwise.
And with the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select...
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Week 2: Explosions, Busts, and Sleepers
Take a well-earned sigh of relief. The cloudiest week in fantasy is now behind us. Among the Week 1 fantasy revelations: RG3 wants to be the next Cam Newton, C.J. Spiller averages thrice as many yards per rush as CJ2K does per game, and a healthy Peyton Manning likes an even spread of targets for Decker, Thomas, and Tamme. In the spirit of suprise and disappointment, let's launch the Week 2 edition of Explosions, Busts, and Sleepers.
Week 2 Explosions (Consistent guys bound to go off this week)
1. Brandon Marshall (CHI - WR)
He's an obvious start if you own him in a league, but if you're doing a weekly salary contest or a pick 'em, he should be top choice at WR. The revival of the Cutler-Marshall connection drew a lot of preseason hype, and if you invested in Marshall, you got a solid payout in Week 1: 9 catches, 119 yards, and a TD. He's clearly Jay Cutler's favorite target, and this week Marshall faces the Packers secondary in a game that's sure to be a shootout. If the Bears are going to win this game, they have to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-38 points. Expect double-digit catches and 2 TDs for Marshall on Thursday night.
2. Eric Decker (DEN - WR)
Decker is another WR who will find himself in a shootout this week. Against the Steelers, Decker caught 5 balls for 54 yards on 7 targets. One of the incompletions came in the endzone during a contested play. It's no secret that Peyton has admired Decker's ability since the 2011 draft, and now he'll put that slick route running to good use. It's not out of the question for Peyton Manning to throw 4 TDs Monday night in the Georgia Dome. With Demaryius Thomas drawing the eyes of the secondary, expect Decker to hit paydirt twice this week.
3. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
All summer long we heard the panic sirens ringing around the Cowboys offensive line. Then Week 1 arrived and Demarco Murray gashed the Giants defense for 131 yards on 20 carries. If a bad Cowboys o-line can open things up, imagine what the Bucs' improved line will do. Expect gaudy numbers for young Doug Martin this week against the Giants. Martin ran for 94 yards last week against the Panthers, and his only knock was that he got stuffed during three chances on the goalline. He should punch one in this week and chew up the field in the process.
Week 2 Busts (Guys bound to perform below expectations)
1. Pierre Garcon (WAS - WR)
Garcon had a monster stat-line in RG3's debut, but 88 of his 109 receiving yards came on one long TD catch. If you're expecting Garcon to be a consistent fantasy option, stop. For as impressive as RG3's debut was, he attempted only 26 passes (in a game in which the Skins scored 40, no less), and Garcon wasn't even the most-targeted WR. This week the Redskins face a Rams secondary that kept Calvin Johnson out of the endzone. Oh, and the Rams held Matthew Stafford without a TD pass until the "bonus time" at the end of the game, courtesy of the refs. Temper your expectations for RG3 as well.
2. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin (DAL - WR)
Can you believe it? It's Week 2 and we're still waiting on our first Tony Romo debacle of the season. On Sunday the Cowboys have to deal with the Seahawks and their infamous home field advantage. Seattle's defense was ranked #1 against the pass last season, and they held Larry Fitzgerald to 4 catches on 11 targets last week. Sure, we're talking about the Cardinals and their abysmal QB situation, but it's hard to argue against a secondary loaded with Pro Bowlers. Lower your hopes for the Dez/Austin combo and possibly roll the dice on Ogletree if you're feeling lucky.
Week 2 Sleepers (Off-the-radar guys who could surprise this week)
1. Dexter McCluster (KC - RB/WR)
Lost among the flaming ruins of the Kansas City Chiefs last week was the fact that Dexter McCluster put in a solid day at the office as a slot receiver. Glad to finally see the Chiefs utilizing McCluster as more than a gimmick. He grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards on a whopping 10 targets, and believe it or not 5 of those targets came prior to garbage time. By comparison, Dwayne Bowe was targeted 6 times. Expect McCluster to continue seeing the ball come his way in the slot, and I think a TD is on tap against a Bills defense that got humiliated by Mark Sanchez.
2. Vikings Defense/Special Teams
Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill were so terrible last week that Andrew Luck's 4 turnovers went virtually unnoticed. That being said, I can see the Vikings garnering at least another 2 turnovers and a few sacks. If you get points for return yardage, remember you're getting Percy Harvin on kick returns.
3. Alshon Jeffery (CHI - WR)
Jay Cutler trash-talked the Packers secondary this week, saying, "Good luck." After Brandon Marshall snags a TD or two, the Packers should zero-in on the superstar, leaving the rookie Jeffery to post another solid stat-line. The Bears talked up Jeffery in the offseason, and it's realistic to see him passing off Devin Hester and Easy Earl Bennett sooner than later.
Week 2 Explosions (Consistent guys bound to go off this week)
1. Brandon Marshall (CHI - WR)
He's an obvious start if you own him in a league, but if you're doing a weekly salary contest or a pick 'em, he should be top choice at WR. The revival of the Cutler-Marshall connection drew a lot of preseason hype, and if you invested in Marshall, you got a solid payout in Week 1: 9 catches, 119 yards, and a TD. He's clearly Jay Cutler's favorite target, and this week Marshall faces the Packers secondary in a game that's sure to be a shootout. If the Bears are going to win this game, they have to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-38 points. Expect double-digit catches and 2 TDs for Marshall on Thursday night.
2. Eric Decker (DEN - WR)
Decker is another WR who will find himself in a shootout this week. Against the Steelers, Decker caught 5 balls for 54 yards on 7 targets. One of the incompletions came in the endzone during a contested play. It's no secret that Peyton has admired Decker's ability since the 2011 draft, and now he'll put that slick route running to good use. It's not out of the question for Peyton Manning to throw 4 TDs Monday night in the Georgia Dome. With Demaryius Thomas drawing the eyes of the secondary, expect Decker to hit paydirt twice this week.
3. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
All summer long we heard the panic sirens ringing around the Cowboys offensive line. Then Week 1 arrived and Demarco Murray gashed the Giants defense for 131 yards on 20 carries. If a bad Cowboys o-line can open things up, imagine what the Bucs' improved line will do. Expect gaudy numbers for young Doug Martin this week against the Giants. Martin ran for 94 yards last week against the Panthers, and his only knock was that he got stuffed during three chances on the goalline. He should punch one in this week and chew up the field in the process.
Week 2 Busts (Guys bound to perform below expectations)
1. Pierre Garcon (WAS - WR)
Garcon had a monster stat-line in RG3's debut, but 88 of his 109 receiving yards came on one long TD catch. If you're expecting Garcon to be a consistent fantasy option, stop. For as impressive as RG3's debut was, he attempted only 26 passes (in a game in which the Skins scored 40, no less), and Garcon wasn't even the most-targeted WR. This week the Redskins face a Rams secondary that kept Calvin Johnson out of the endzone. Oh, and the Rams held Matthew Stafford without a TD pass until the "bonus time" at the end of the game, courtesy of the refs. Temper your expectations for RG3 as well.
2. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin (DAL - WR)
Can you believe it? It's Week 2 and we're still waiting on our first Tony Romo debacle of the season. On Sunday the Cowboys have to deal with the Seahawks and their infamous home field advantage. Seattle's defense was ranked #1 against the pass last season, and they held Larry Fitzgerald to 4 catches on 11 targets last week. Sure, we're talking about the Cardinals and their abysmal QB situation, but it's hard to argue against a secondary loaded with Pro Bowlers. Lower your hopes for the Dez/Austin combo and possibly roll the dice on Ogletree if you're feeling lucky.
Week 2 Sleepers (Off-the-radar guys who could surprise this week)
1. Dexter McCluster (KC - RB/WR)
Lost among the flaming ruins of the Kansas City Chiefs last week was the fact that Dexter McCluster put in a solid day at the office as a slot receiver. Glad to finally see the Chiefs utilizing McCluster as more than a gimmick. He grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards on a whopping 10 targets, and believe it or not 5 of those targets came prior to garbage time. By comparison, Dwayne Bowe was targeted 6 times. Expect McCluster to continue seeing the ball come his way in the slot, and I think a TD is on tap against a Bills defense that got humiliated by Mark Sanchez.
2. Vikings Defense/Special Teams
Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill were so terrible last week that Andrew Luck's 4 turnovers went virtually unnoticed. That being said, I can see the Vikings garnering at least another 2 turnovers and a few sacks. If you get points for return yardage, remember you're getting Percy Harvin on kick returns.
3. Alshon Jeffery (CHI - WR)
Jay Cutler trash-talked the Packers secondary this week, saying, "Good luck." After Brandon Marshall snags a TD or two, the Packers should zero-in on the superstar, leaving the rookie Jeffery to post another solid stat-line. The Bears talked up Jeffery in the offseason, and it's realistic to see him passing off Devin Hester and Easy Earl Bennett sooner than later.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Gabbert: Fantasy Relevant
Forget the final score. Forget the overthrow in overtime that sealed the Vikings' victory yesterday. Let's look a a guy who's marinating on almost every waiver wire right now: Blaine Gabbert.
Yep, that Blaine Gabbert. The same one who looked shell-shocked on every snap last season. The same one who ran play-action on a Hail Mary against the Steelers. He's now fantasy relevant, and I'd argue he could be a safe fantasy backup who could net 12 or 16 points a week in standard leagues (think 2011 Andy Dalton numbers). As for weekly salary leagues, he could be a cheap steal week after week.
Consider this: Gabbert posted his best game as a pro on Sunday. This was right after he impressed throughout the entire preseason. And not only has Gabbert finally stopped looking and playing like a homecoming queen, but his supporting cast has vastly improved. Mike Thomas, last year's No. 1 wideout, is now No. 4 on the depth chart. Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Cecil Shorts actually resemble a receiving corps, and TE Marcedes Lewis caught his first TD since the David Garrard era on Sunday.
Is there any catch? Sure. Gabbert's 260 yards and 2 TDs came against the last year's bottom-ranked fantasy pass defense. And you could argue that Gabbert only had a measly 10 points prior to Cecil Shorts' spectacular Hail Mary grab at the end of regulation. And you could point fingers at Maurice Jones-Drew's limited workload, which will increase starting next Sunday.
But the bottom line is this: Gabbert and the Jags have a rough schedule (the rest of the NFC North, the entire AFC East, and two games against Houston), MJD is an injury waiting to happen (no player has more touches than MJD over the past three years), and Gabbert finally has reliable hands to throw to. And the Jags are still in rebuilding mode. They'll be down, they'll be throwing. And if you're looking to snag a guy on waivers, why not roll the dice on a guy who's throwing downfield, as opposed to say, Carson Palmer, who completed thirteen (!) dump-offs to McFadden on Monday night.
Yep, that Blaine Gabbert. The same one who looked shell-shocked on every snap last season. The same one who ran play-action on a Hail Mary against the Steelers. He's now fantasy relevant, and I'd argue he could be a safe fantasy backup who could net 12 or 16 points a week in standard leagues (think 2011 Andy Dalton numbers). As for weekly salary leagues, he could be a cheap steal week after week.
Consider this: Gabbert posted his best game as a pro on Sunday. This was right after he impressed throughout the entire preseason. And not only has Gabbert finally stopped looking and playing like a homecoming queen, but his supporting cast has vastly improved. Mike Thomas, last year's No. 1 wideout, is now No. 4 on the depth chart. Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Cecil Shorts actually resemble a receiving corps, and TE Marcedes Lewis caught his first TD since the David Garrard era on Sunday.
Is there any catch? Sure. Gabbert's 260 yards and 2 TDs came against the last year's bottom-ranked fantasy pass defense. And you could argue that Gabbert only had a measly 10 points prior to Cecil Shorts' spectacular Hail Mary grab at the end of regulation. And you could point fingers at Maurice Jones-Drew's limited workload, which will increase starting next Sunday.
But the bottom line is this: Gabbert and the Jags have a rough schedule (the rest of the NFC North, the entire AFC East, and two games against Houston), MJD is an injury waiting to happen (no player has more touches than MJD over the past three years), and Gabbert finally has reliable hands to throw to. And the Jags are still in rebuilding mode. They'll be down, they'll be throwing. And if you're looking to snag a guy on waivers, why not roll the dice on a guy who's throwing downfield, as opposed to say, Carson Palmer, who completed thirteen (!) dump-offs to McFadden on Monday night.
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