Heroes:
1) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Last week Cam Newton targeted Steve Smith SIXTEEN times for seven catches and triple-figure yardage. That was against the Bears, who pride themselves on their defense. This week Steve Smith faces Washington's laughable secondary. Also note that Steve Smith is well overdue for a TD--hasn't scored all year, but bank on at least one TD against the Skins.
2) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's at home this week, and he's facing a Miami defense that can only be beat through the air. Start Luck and anyone else in the Colts passing game this week.
3) Alfred Morris (RB - WAS)
The Panthers are gashed with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and they had a porous run defense to begin with. Morris has hit triple-figures in 3 of the last 5 weeks, and he's primed to make it 4 for 6.
Bums:
1) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Seattle's defense ranks third against fantasy RBs, and Christian Ponder has regressed to the point where defenses can afford to stack the box. Ponder had 58 yards passing against Arizona, then collected a good chunk of his 251 yards against Tampa in garbage time. Wouldn't you stack the box?
2) CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Until one of these guys kills the other in cold blood, this timeshare is going to stifle what would otherwise be phenomenal upside. While you can normally get around 10-15 points from either of these RBs, this week Houston should shut them down. 8 points is the ceiling for either of them this week.
3) Roddy White and Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
I'm listing them both here because I don't think it's possible to trust either of them against the Cowboys on Sunday. Julio is notorious for underperforming at home this year, and Dallas' secondary is solid enough to keep them both in check. I still think Matt Ryan is a safe start, and I like Tony Gonzales a ton this week (he's way overdue for a TD).
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
Oh, boy, do I love Dwayne Allen this week. He garners a reliable 3 or 4 fantasy points most weeks, but on Sunday the Colts will be without starting TE Coby Fleener. That means more balls will sail Allen's way, and the match-up (against Miami's brutal run defense) should force Andrew Luck to pull the trigger to no end. Expect 60-70 yards and a TD for Allen.
2) Justin Blackmon (WR - JAC)
Last week's sign of the apocalypse was Blaine Gabbert's 300+ yard passing effort (Congrats, Blaine, it only took you 22 tries!). Now Cecil Shorts is everybody's darling as far as Jags receivers go, and I like him this week, but I think Justin Blackmon might stop dropping passes and hang onto a TD pass. And, hey, the Lions will be throwing and scoring, so Gabbert will have to play catch-up.
3) Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
It's Thursday night, which means the Chiefs/Chargers match-up has to play out in one of two ways: defensive borefest or lopsided defeat. I say we get the former (I'm calling 20-13 Chargers), complete with 2 INTs, 3 sacks, and a fumble recovery from the Chiefs D. It's a slightly risky play, but until Phil Rivers clears his head, start the opposing defense, especially on a short week.
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