Friday, October 5, 2012

Week 5: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers

Heroes:

1. Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
When you're down big, you throw often, and Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up for four quarters on Sunday. Reggie Wayne is unquestionably his favorite target, and he's headed for a stat-line reminiscent of the Manning era. Expect triple-figure yardage and two TDs against a defense that gave up 42 fantasy points to wide receivers last week.

2. Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte (RBs - SEA and CHI)
I like them both for the same reason: uninspired QB play on their end and bad rushing defenses on their opponents' end. Lynch gets Carolina's 30th-ranked fantasy rush defense while Forte faces 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers got whallopped by Andre Brown and washed-up Michael Turner in consecutive weeks, and my Jags practically welcome RBs into the endzone. I'm a tad concerned with Seattle playing away from home and with Forte still recovering from an ankle injury, but the match-ups are too juicy to avoid.

3. Matt Hasselbeck (QB - TEN)
Faces a rotten Vikings secondary in a game where he has a ton to prove. If Kenny Britt was healthy, I'd like Hasselbeck even more, but the Bald Bomber should make due with Nate Washington, Jared Cook, and Kendall Wright. Keep in mind that Hasselbeck looked Jared Cook's way often at the end of last season. Cook has been quiet since Locker took the helm, but that will change on Sunday.

Bums:

1. Cam Newton and Steve Smith (QB and WR - CAR)
They face the Seahawks secondary, which somehow hurts aerial attacks more than gravity. Cam might be safe if he can garner some rushing yards, but under no circumstances should you trust Smitty this week. There are three Pro-Bowl-caliber reasons not to.

2. Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
His "breakout" last week came in garbage time, and now he faces the best run defense on his schedule in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that Minnesota's secondary is their weakness, and you have a classic CJ0K egg waiting to be laid.

3. Michael Turner (RB - ATL)
The fact that Michael Turner scored on a long catch and run last week was miraculous. Too bad his unearthly game against Carolina will be a distant memory once he faces a Skins D that is ranked 10th against fantasy RBs. Matt Ryan will go crazy against the Skins' 32nd-ranked secondary, and with Julio healthy again, I can't envision a scenario where Turner gets more than 7 or 8 points.

Sleepers:

1. Domenick Hixon (WR - NYG)
Nick is out, Barden is out, and the Giants won't have any trouble throwing against a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary. Expect Hixon to go nuts when Cruz draws inevitable double-coverage.

2. Jermaine Gresham (TE - CIN)
You can't run on the Dolphins. Even if you're Darren McFadden. But you can throw on them. Even if you're Kevin Kolb, who tossed 3TDs and garnered 324 yards through the air on Sunday. So shouldn't Andy Dandy be able to at least match that Kolb stat line? And in whose hands do his 3TDs end up? A.J. Green, most likely. Then I can see Andrew Hawkins and Gresham grabbing the rest.

3. Kendall Hunter (RB - SF)
Last week the Bills got absolute PAVED by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. 100+ yards a piece. Yowza. Frank Gore will get his, but once this one gets out of hand, I can see Kendall Hunter putting up somewhere around 80 yards and a TD. I'd love Hunter even more if Brandon Jacobs wasn't slated to return from injury.

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