Saturday, December 1, 2012

Week 13: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers

Heroes:

1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.

2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.

3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.

Bums:

1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.

Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:

Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards

Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.

2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.

3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.

Sleepers

1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.

2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.

3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.

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