Thursday Night Football... what a concept. Exhausted players, low-quality competition, and letdowns galore in fantasy land. Just look at this season's first three Thursday night games. Likely shootouts lulled us to sleep (Bears/Packers, Giants/Panthers); stud QBs turned into Ty Detmer before our very eyes (Cutler, Newton), and top 10 draft picks posted 10th rounder performances (Rice, Rodgers). With offenses underperforming every week, it's becoming harder to trust guys who are automatic every Sunday. So should you start sitting your tired, weary, ill-prepared Thursday night guys?
As far as skill players go, I'd say yes--but only if you have a solid alternative. Consider this:
- Ray Rice came into last Thursday's match-up against the Browns averaging 18 PPG, and he left with 8 points in a standard league (against the Browns!).
- Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined for 12 points in Week 2. On Sundays and Mondays? They average a combined 23 points--nearly double.
- Cam Newton averages over 50 yards rushing in Sunday games this year. On Thursday night against the Giants, you ask? 6 yards.
Obviously, most of the guys I mentioned are studs, and in traditional leagues you'd be a fool to bench them. But if you're on the fence about Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson this week, you might want to take a second glance at your bench.
Thursday night games play out in one of two ways. You either have 1) a defensive struggle where both under-prepared offenses sputter, or 2) a mismatch where the better teams romps, usually while tacking on a bunch of FGs. In the past we used to blame disappointing Thursday night games on the fact that they were played late in the season. Now, after three September bummers, there's no excuse: Thursday night is bad for football and worse for fantasy skill players.
Now, defenses are another story. Defenses THRIVE on Thursday. Green Bay's defense destroyed Chicago's offensive line en route to 21 fantasy points in a standard league. In that same game, Chicago posted a solid 9 points against one of the league's premiere offenses. As for the Giants, their defense posted a whopping 15 points; in their other three games they racked in 5 points total. And last week, Baltimore posted their first respectable showing since their season opener.
One more stat for you: 19, 21, 21. Those are the combined totals for Thursday kickers in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, respectively. In Week 2, Lawrence Tynes outscored Eli Manning by 5 points, just days after Eli threw for 500+ yards against the Bucs. Yikes.
As for tonight's game, I'm on board with the Cardinals D/ST, Rams D/ST, Greg Zuerlein, and Jay Feely. Can't you picture Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb trading three-and-outs all night long? Can't you see defenders rolling on top of those guys in the backfield? Can't you picture Jeff Fisher shaking his head on the sidelines while Ken Whisenhunt fist-pumps after a 45-yarder from Jay Feely? It's gonna be one of those types of games. Just another Thursday.
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