Heroes
1) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
You can start Manning and pretty much every pass-catcher in this offense. Saints/Broncos has shootout written all over it, and if the game follows the usual Broncos script, we should see Peyton entering comeback mode at some point in the second quarter. Note that Josh Freeman set career highs against the Saints on Sunday. Note also that Josh Freeman is not a Hall of Fame caliber QB.
2) Matt Forte (RB - CHI)
Carolina is a flaming mess at this point, losing Jon Beason and their GM this week. With the injuries and distractions, Carolina will go soft on defense (and they're already pillow soft). throw in the fact that Jay Cutler's a little banged up, and Forte should be the focus of the offense.
3) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
The last time Big Ben played a secondary as bad as Washington's, he lit up the Raiders for 4 TDs and 384 yards passing.
Bums
1) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
In case you missed Monday Night Football, the Bears showed America the textbook method to shutting down the Lions offense: take away Calvin, let Stafford figure out if there's anyone else he can trust. Now, I rave about Seattle's secondary every week, so it shouldn't surprise anyone when I say that three Pro Bowlers should be able to contain Calvin. I'm feeling a pedestrian 70 yards for Megatron on Sunday.
2) All your Rams
London games are historically low-scoring, and the Rams themselves have been historically low scoring in the past six years or so. Never underestimate 7-hours worth of jetlag, which is what the Rams will face as opposed to the Patriots 6-hours of sleep alteration. If I had to start one Ram, it'd be Chris Givens--a deep threat going against a Pats D that can't handle deep threats.
3) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
He struggled against the Cowboys in Week 1, dropping seemingly every pass that hit his fingers. Nicks is back, and the Cowboys are ranked 7th against opposing fantasy wideouts. After four straight weeks with at least one TD, Cruz is due to lay an egg.
Sleepers
1) Dolphins D/ST
The Jets have been living off the run these past two weeks, and Miami specializes in building brick walls at the line of scrimmage. Plus the Dolphins are fresh off a bye and the Jets are fresh off a gut-wrenching OT defeat.
2) Montario Hardesty (RB - CLE)
Check Richardson's status, but if Hardesty starts his should have a solid game at home against a so-so San Diego defense playing at 1 pm.
3) Joel Dreessen (TE - DEN)
Total gut call. He's eclipsed Jacob Tamme in terms of targets, but it's hard to say which one will catch a TD this Sunday night (if either do).
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 7: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
Had a relatively quiet game last week while Alex Smith did his best Kyle Williams impression. I don't expect the Redskins to hand the game away, so expect tons of points on the reality and fantasy scoreboards. Eli should thrash that embarrassing Redskins secondary, and Ahmad Bradshaw's developing injury means the Giants will go light on the ground game this week.
2) Denarius Moore (WR - OAK)
Remember over the summer when Carson Palmer had all those glowing comments for Denarius Moore? Now that Moore's healthy, I'm apt to believe Palmer. The two were electric last week against the Falcons, with Moore posting a statline of 5-104-1 on 9 targets. That's great. What's better is the fact that now Moore gets to go up against a defense that gave up 20.8 PPG to opposing wideouts before losing their top safety.
3) Felix Jones (RB - DAL)
Felix Jones is the fantasy equivalent of an unfaithful woman who swears again and again that she's ready to commit. Felix looks pretty on draftboards and on waivers, yet as soon as you invite him into your lineup, the pangs of regret swell from within. However, this week against Carolina's silly run defense (ranked 28th against RBs; has surrendered at least 92 yards rushing to every backfield), I can see Felix posting triple-figures and a TD. Don't get swept away though--dump him or sell high as soon as this Carolina game is over.
Bums:
1) Every offensive player involved in the Seahawks/49ers game
Offenses typically sputter on Thursday nights to begin with, and now you're telling me that two elite defenses have the mid-week game? Don't start anyone other than Defenses and Kickers. I expect San Fran to win, so maybe you could talk me into Frank Gore. Absolutely no Seahawks though. You can't run on the Niners, and Russell Wilson can't throw on anyone (I'm not sold on his performance against the Patriots. No way do the Niners allow Wilson to chuck deep balls on them).
2) James Jones (WR - GB)
There's been a trend in his stats the past three weeks: 17, 16, 15. Sure, you might say you'd take 14 points if that trend were to continue, but allow me to rain and pour on the James Jones parade: Jones has had two TDs in each of the past three games. It's a remarkable streak, but when you factor out those TDs, your left with 5, 4, and 3 points-worth of yardage, respectively. So if you're plugging James Jones in your lineup, you'd better be damned sure he'll catch touchdowns. Otherwise, you'll groan at the sight of his 4 catch, 34 yard performance. And against a solid Ram defense, I feel this is the week he has one of those ugly stat-lines.
3) Mikel Leshoure (RB - DET)
Jahvid Best won't be back, but timeshares were never the concern with Leshoure. Even though Stafford's stats are down this year (4 passing TDs in 5 games), this is still a pass-heavy offense. And against the Bears defense, which hasn't allowed a backfield to crack 90 yards rushing, I can't endorse Leshoure. At best he's bye-week filler.
Sleepers:
1) Josh Freeman (QB - TB)
Drew Brees will throw at least four TDs on Sunday against a terrible Tampa secondary. Without question. But that does raise the question: will Josh Freeman be able to keep up? He'll have an easy match-up, and I can't see him throwing less than two TDs in this one. Tampa will be down and throwing.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - TEN)
Getting healthier every week, as are his statlines. Last year he was unquestionably Hasselbeck's favorite WR, and that connection is heating up again. This week Britt faces an atrocious Buffalo secondary that gave up 200 yards to the Niners' and Jets' receivers. Buffalo has also given up at least one TD to every receiving corp they've encountered.
1) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
Had a relatively quiet game last week while Alex Smith did his best Kyle Williams impression. I don't expect the Redskins to hand the game away, so expect tons of points on the reality and fantasy scoreboards. Eli should thrash that embarrassing Redskins secondary, and Ahmad Bradshaw's developing injury means the Giants will go light on the ground game this week.
2) Denarius Moore (WR - OAK)
Remember over the summer when Carson Palmer had all those glowing comments for Denarius Moore? Now that Moore's healthy, I'm apt to believe Palmer. The two were electric last week against the Falcons, with Moore posting a statline of 5-104-1 on 9 targets. That's great. What's better is the fact that now Moore gets to go up against a defense that gave up 20.8 PPG to opposing wideouts before losing their top safety.
3) Felix Jones (RB - DAL)
Felix Jones is the fantasy equivalent of an unfaithful woman who swears again and again that she's ready to commit. Felix looks pretty on draftboards and on waivers, yet as soon as you invite him into your lineup, the pangs of regret swell from within. However, this week against Carolina's silly run defense (ranked 28th against RBs; has surrendered at least 92 yards rushing to every backfield), I can see Felix posting triple-figures and a TD. Don't get swept away though--dump him or sell high as soon as this Carolina game is over.
Bums:
1) Every offensive player involved in the Seahawks/49ers game
Offenses typically sputter on Thursday nights to begin with, and now you're telling me that two elite defenses have the mid-week game? Don't start anyone other than Defenses and Kickers. I expect San Fran to win, so maybe you could talk me into Frank Gore. Absolutely no Seahawks though. You can't run on the Niners, and Russell Wilson can't throw on anyone (I'm not sold on his performance against the Patriots. No way do the Niners allow Wilson to chuck deep balls on them).
2) James Jones (WR - GB)
There's been a trend in his stats the past three weeks: 17, 16, 15. Sure, you might say you'd take 14 points if that trend were to continue, but allow me to rain and pour on the James Jones parade: Jones has had two TDs in each of the past three games. It's a remarkable streak, but when you factor out those TDs, your left with 5, 4, and 3 points-worth of yardage, respectively. So if you're plugging James Jones in your lineup, you'd better be damned sure he'll catch touchdowns. Otherwise, you'll groan at the sight of his 4 catch, 34 yard performance. And against a solid Ram defense, I feel this is the week he has one of those ugly stat-lines.
3) Mikel Leshoure (RB - DET)
Jahvid Best won't be back, but timeshares were never the concern with Leshoure. Even though Stafford's stats are down this year (4 passing TDs in 5 games), this is still a pass-heavy offense. And against the Bears defense, which hasn't allowed a backfield to crack 90 yards rushing, I can't endorse Leshoure. At best he's bye-week filler.
Sleepers:
1) Josh Freeman (QB - TB)
Drew Brees will throw at least four TDs on Sunday against a terrible Tampa secondary. Without question. But that does raise the question: will Josh Freeman be able to keep up? He'll have an easy match-up, and I can't see him throwing less than two TDs in this one. Tampa will be down and throwing.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - TEN)
Getting healthier every week, as are his statlines. Last year he was unquestionably Hasselbeck's favorite WR, and that connection is heating up again. This week Britt faces an atrocious Buffalo secondary that gave up 200 yards to the Niners' and Jets' receivers. Buffalo has also given up at least one TD to every receiving corp they've encountered.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Week 6: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Richardson crushed Cincy in their meeting four weeks ago (145 total yards, 2 TDs), and the match-up is even more favorable this time around. Since Cleveland's defense is back to full strength, expect the running game to churn as Brandon Weeden doesn't have to sling the ball to catch up.
2. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin (QB & WR - MIN)
Keep an eye on Harvin's status--as I write this he's questionable--but this match-up has "Season High" written all over it for both guys. The Redskins are the official punching bag for passing offenses, and if this thing ends up as a shootout (see: if RG3 shows up healthy), it'll rain fantasy points.
3. Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)
Anyone reading this could outcoach Norv Turner, but at least the Norvster wised up on Sunday night and handed Mathews a full workload. Mathews looked fresh and electric, and this week he's going against a Denver defense that is giving up 16 PPG to RBs. Ride Mathews while he's healthy.
Bums:
1. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
Green had 7 catches for 58 yards and a TD against them four weeks ago, so what could go wrong? Well, the return of shutdown corner Joe Haden. After a four-game suspension, he's rested and eager to eliminate Green from Cincy's offensive scheme. And with Haden back, Cleveland's defense can go back to playing like they did in Week 1 against Philly. The Browns should be a force this week (did I really just type that?), so expect an awkward statline from Andy Dandy as well.
2. The Rams and Dolphins Offenses (All of them)
The Dolphins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, the Rams have only allowed two passing TDs all season, Sam Bradford's top target (Amendola) is out for the next few weeks, Reggie Bush is banged up, you can't trust any Rams or Dolphins passcatcher, there's just too much to hate here. This game has the feel of a 13-6 snorefest where Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson crash into defensive lineman for sixty minutes. Start Defenses and Kickers only.
3. Tom Brady (QB - NE)
I'm not suggesting you sit him in a normal league, but if you're considering him in a weekly league, stop. Seattle. Pro Bowl secondary. I say it every week.
Sleepers:
1. Brady Quinn (QB - KC)
I'm a Notre Dame fan, so there's some wishful bias to this pick, but Quinn looked decent in relief of Cassel last week. He went 3-for-3 and had a TD pass to Dwayne Bowe called back. This was against the Ravens in a tight contest. Now he faces Tampa's awful secondary, and I don't think 200 yards and 2 TDs sounds unreasonable.
2. Brandon Gibson (WR - STL)
Yeah, I know I just trashed the Rams in my Bums section, but if you're digging for a sleeper WR, you could do worse than Gibson, who is now the team's top wideout. And since Miami is staunch against the run, Bradford will generate whatever offense they can muster.
3. Vic Ballard (RB - IND)
Don Brown is out for the next three weeks, so Vic Ballard assumes the starting role. Don't go crazy trusting him--he's averaging 2 yards per carry, Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter crowd the backfield, and the Colts are a passing team--but if you need a prayer at RB, go for it. Ballard is dirt cheap in salary leagues since he wasn't announced as the starter until Wednesday.
1. Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Richardson crushed Cincy in their meeting four weeks ago (145 total yards, 2 TDs), and the match-up is even more favorable this time around. Since Cleveland's defense is back to full strength, expect the running game to churn as Brandon Weeden doesn't have to sling the ball to catch up.
2. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin (QB & WR - MIN)
Keep an eye on Harvin's status--as I write this he's questionable--but this match-up has "Season High" written all over it for both guys. The Redskins are the official punching bag for passing offenses, and if this thing ends up as a shootout (see: if RG3 shows up healthy), it'll rain fantasy points.
3. Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)
Anyone reading this could outcoach Norv Turner, but at least the Norvster wised up on Sunday night and handed Mathews a full workload. Mathews looked fresh and electric, and this week he's going against a Denver defense that is giving up 16 PPG to RBs. Ride Mathews while he's healthy.
Bums:
1. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
Green had 7 catches for 58 yards and a TD against them four weeks ago, so what could go wrong? Well, the return of shutdown corner Joe Haden. After a four-game suspension, he's rested and eager to eliminate Green from Cincy's offensive scheme. And with Haden back, Cleveland's defense can go back to playing like they did in Week 1 against Philly. The Browns should be a force this week (did I really just type that?), so expect an awkward statline from Andy Dandy as well.
2. The Rams and Dolphins Offenses (All of them)
The Dolphins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, the Rams have only allowed two passing TDs all season, Sam Bradford's top target (Amendola) is out for the next few weeks, Reggie Bush is banged up, you can't trust any Rams or Dolphins passcatcher, there's just too much to hate here. This game has the feel of a 13-6 snorefest where Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson crash into defensive lineman for sixty minutes. Start Defenses and Kickers only.
3. Tom Brady (QB - NE)
I'm not suggesting you sit him in a normal league, but if you're considering him in a weekly league, stop. Seattle. Pro Bowl secondary. I say it every week.
Sleepers:
1. Brady Quinn (QB - KC)
I'm a Notre Dame fan, so there's some wishful bias to this pick, but Quinn looked decent in relief of Cassel last week. He went 3-for-3 and had a TD pass to Dwayne Bowe called back. This was against the Ravens in a tight contest. Now he faces Tampa's awful secondary, and I don't think 200 yards and 2 TDs sounds unreasonable.
2. Brandon Gibson (WR - STL)
Yeah, I know I just trashed the Rams in my Bums section, but if you're digging for a sleeper WR, you could do worse than Gibson, who is now the team's top wideout. And since Miami is staunch against the run, Bradford will generate whatever offense they can muster.
3. Vic Ballard (RB - IND)
Don Brown is out for the next three weeks, so Vic Ballard assumes the starting role. Don't go crazy trusting him--he's averaging 2 yards per carry, Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter crowd the backfield, and the Colts are a passing team--but if you need a prayer at RB, go for it. Ballard is dirt cheap in salary leagues since he wasn't announced as the starter until Wednesday.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Week 5: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
When you're down big, you throw often, and Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up for four quarters on Sunday. Reggie Wayne is unquestionably his favorite target, and he's headed for a stat-line reminiscent of the Manning era. Expect triple-figure yardage and two TDs against a defense that gave up 42 fantasy points to wide receivers last week.
2. Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte (RBs - SEA and CHI)
I like them both for the same reason: uninspired QB play on their end and bad rushing defenses on their opponents' end. Lynch gets Carolina's 30th-ranked fantasy rush defense while Forte faces 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers got whallopped by Andre Brown and washed-up Michael Turner in consecutive weeks, and my Jags practically welcome RBs into the endzone. I'm a tad concerned with Seattle playing away from home and with Forte still recovering from an ankle injury, but the match-ups are too juicy to avoid.
3. Matt Hasselbeck (QB - TEN)
Faces a rotten Vikings secondary in a game where he has a ton to prove. If Kenny Britt was healthy, I'd like Hasselbeck even more, but the Bald Bomber should make due with Nate Washington, Jared Cook, and Kendall Wright. Keep in mind that Hasselbeck looked Jared Cook's way often at the end of last season. Cook has been quiet since Locker took the helm, but that will change on Sunday.
Bums:
1. Cam Newton and Steve Smith (QB and WR - CAR)
They face the Seahawks secondary, which somehow hurts aerial attacks more than gravity. Cam might be safe if he can garner some rushing yards, but under no circumstances should you trust Smitty this week. There are three Pro-Bowl-caliber reasons not to.
2. Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
His "breakout" last week came in garbage time, and now he faces the best run defense on his schedule in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that Minnesota's secondary is their weakness, and you have a classic CJ0K egg waiting to be laid.
3. Michael Turner (RB - ATL)
The fact that Michael Turner scored on a long catch and run last week was miraculous. Too bad his unearthly game against Carolina will be a distant memory once he faces a Skins D that is ranked 10th against fantasy RBs. Matt Ryan will go crazy against the Skins' 32nd-ranked secondary, and with Julio healthy again, I can't envision a scenario where Turner gets more than 7 or 8 points.
Sleepers:
1. Domenick Hixon (WR - NYG)
Nick is out, Barden is out, and the Giants won't have any trouble throwing against a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary. Expect Hixon to go nuts when Cruz draws inevitable double-coverage.
2. Jermaine Gresham (TE - CIN)
You can't run on the Dolphins. Even if you're Darren McFadden. But you can throw on them. Even if you're Kevin Kolb, who tossed 3TDs and garnered 324 yards through the air on Sunday. So shouldn't Andy Dandy be able to at least match that Kolb stat line? And in whose hands do his 3TDs end up? A.J. Green, most likely. Then I can see Andrew Hawkins and Gresham grabbing the rest.
3. Kendall Hunter (RB - SF)
Last week the Bills got absolute PAVED by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. 100+ yards a piece. Yowza. Frank Gore will get his, but once this one gets out of hand, I can see Kendall Hunter putting up somewhere around 80 yards and a TD. I'd love Hunter even more if Brandon Jacobs wasn't slated to return from injury.
1. Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
When you're down big, you throw often, and Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up for four quarters on Sunday. Reggie Wayne is unquestionably his favorite target, and he's headed for a stat-line reminiscent of the Manning era. Expect triple-figure yardage and two TDs against a defense that gave up 42 fantasy points to wide receivers last week.
2. Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte (RBs - SEA and CHI)
I like them both for the same reason: uninspired QB play on their end and bad rushing defenses on their opponents' end. Lynch gets Carolina's 30th-ranked fantasy rush defense while Forte faces 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers got whallopped by Andre Brown and washed-up Michael Turner in consecutive weeks, and my Jags practically welcome RBs into the endzone. I'm a tad concerned with Seattle playing away from home and with Forte still recovering from an ankle injury, but the match-ups are too juicy to avoid.
3. Matt Hasselbeck (QB - TEN)
Faces a rotten Vikings secondary in a game where he has a ton to prove. If Kenny Britt was healthy, I'd like Hasselbeck even more, but the Bald Bomber should make due with Nate Washington, Jared Cook, and Kendall Wright. Keep in mind that Hasselbeck looked Jared Cook's way often at the end of last season. Cook has been quiet since Locker took the helm, but that will change on Sunday.
Bums:
1. Cam Newton and Steve Smith (QB and WR - CAR)
They face the Seahawks secondary, which somehow hurts aerial attacks more than gravity. Cam might be safe if he can garner some rushing yards, but under no circumstances should you trust Smitty this week. There are three Pro-Bowl-caliber reasons not to.
2. Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
His "breakout" last week came in garbage time, and now he faces the best run defense on his schedule in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that Minnesota's secondary is their weakness, and you have a classic CJ0K egg waiting to be laid.
3. Michael Turner (RB - ATL)
The fact that Michael Turner scored on a long catch and run last week was miraculous. Too bad his unearthly game against Carolina will be a distant memory once he faces a Skins D that is ranked 10th against fantasy RBs. Matt Ryan will go crazy against the Skins' 32nd-ranked secondary, and with Julio healthy again, I can't envision a scenario where Turner gets more than 7 or 8 points.
Sleepers:
1. Domenick Hixon (WR - NYG)
Nick is out, Barden is out, and the Giants won't have any trouble throwing against a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary. Expect Hixon to go nuts when Cruz draws inevitable double-coverage.
2. Jermaine Gresham (TE - CIN)
You can't run on the Dolphins. Even if you're Darren McFadden. But you can throw on them. Even if you're Kevin Kolb, who tossed 3TDs and garnered 324 yards through the air on Sunday. So shouldn't Andy Dandy be able to at least match that Kolb stat line? And in whose hands do his 3TDs end up? A.J. Green, most likely. Then I can see Andrew Hawkins and Gresham grabbing the rest.
3. Kendall Hunter (RB - SF)
Last week the Bills got absolute PAVED by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. 100+ yards a piece. Yowza. Frank Gore will get his, but once this one gets out of hand, I can see Kendall Hunter putting up somewhere around 80 yards and a TD. I'd love Hunter even more if Brandon Jacobs wasn't slated to return from injury.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Beware the Thursday Night Game
Thursday Night Football... what a concept. Exhausted players, low-quality competition, and letdowns galore in fantasy land. Just look at this season's first three Thursday night games. Likely shootouts lulled us to sleep (Bears/Packers, Giants/Panthers); stud QBs turned into Ty Detmer before our very eyes (Cutler, Newton), and top 10 draft picks posted 10th rounder performances (Rice, Rodgers). With offenses underperforming every week, it's becoming harder to trust guys who are automatic every Sunday. So should you start sitting your tired, weary, ill-prepared Thursday night guys?
As far as skill players go, I'd say yes--but only if you have a solid alternative. Consider this:
- Ray Rice came into last Thursday's match-up against the Browns averaging 18 PPG, and he left with 8 points in a standard league (against the Browns!).
- Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined for 12 points in Week 2. On Sundays and Mondays? They average a combined 23 points--nearly double.
- Cam Newton averages over 50 yards rushing in Sunday games this year. On Thursday night against the Giants, you ask? 6 yards.
Obviously, most of the guys I mentioned are studs, and in traditional leagues you'd be a fool to bench them. But if you're on the fence about Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson this week, you might want to take a second glance at your bench.
Thursday night games play out in one of two ways. You either have 1) a defensive struggle where both under-prepared offenses sputter, or 2) a mismatch where the better teams romps, usually while tacking on a bunch of FGs. In the past we used to blame disappointing Thursday night games on the fact that they were played late in the season. Now, after three September bummers, there's no excuse: Thursday night is bad for football and worse for fantasy skill players.
Now, defenses are another story. Defenses THRIVE on Thursday. Green Bay's defense destroyed Chicago's offensive line en route to 21 fantasy points in a standard league. In that same game, Chicago posted a solid 9 points against one of the league's premiere offenses. As for the Giants, their defense posted a whopping 15 points; in their other three games they racked in 5 points total. And last week, Baltimore posted their first respectable showing since their season opener.
One more stat for you: 19, 21, 21. Those are the combined totals for Thursday kickers in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, respectively. In Week 2, Lawrence Tynes outscored Eli Manning by 5 points, just days after Eli threw for 500+ yards against the Bucs. Yikes.
As for tonight's game, I'm on board with the Cardinals D/ST, Rams D/ST, Greg Zuerlein, and Jay Feely. Can't you picture Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb trading three-and-outs all night long? Can't you see defenders rolling on top of those guys in the backfield? Can't you picture Jeff Fisher shaking his head on the sidelines while Ken Whisenhunt fist-pumps after a 45-yarder from Jay Feely? It's gonna be one of those types of games. Just another Thursday.
As far as skill players go, I'd say yes--but only if you have a solid alternative. Consider this:
- Ray Rice came into last Thursday's match-up against the Browns averaging 18 PPG, and he left with 8 points in a standard league (against the Browns!).
- Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined for 12 points in Week 2. On Sundays and Mondays? They average a combined 23 points--nearly double.
- Cam Newton averages over 50 yards rushing in Sunday games this year. On Thursday night against the Giants, you ask? 6 yards.
Obviously, most of the guys I mentioned are studs, and in traditional leagues you'd be a fool to bench them. But if you're on the fence about Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson this week, you might want to take a second glance at your bench.
Thursday night games play out in one of two ways. You either have 1) a defensive struggle where both under-prepared offenses sputter, or 2) a mismatch where the better teams romps, usually while tacking on a bunch of FGs. In the past we used to blame disappointing Thursday night games on the fact that they were played late in the season. Now, after three September bummers, there's no excuse: Thursday night is bad for football and worse for fantasy skill players.
Now, defenses are another story. Defenses THRIVE on Thursday. Green Bay's defense destroyed Chicago's offensive line en route to 21 fantasy points in a standard league. In that same game, Chicago posted a solid 9 points against one of the league's premiere offenses. As for the Giants, their defense posted a whopping 15 points; in their other three games they racked in 5 points total. And last week, Baltimore posted their first respectable showing since their season opener.
One more stat for you: 19, 21, 21. Those are the combined totals for Thursday kickers in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, respectively. In Week 2, Lawrence Tynes outscored Eli Manning by 5 points, just days after Eli threw for 500+ yards against the Bucs. Yikes.
As for tonight's game, I'm on board with the Cardinals D/ST, Rams D/ST, Greg Zuerlein, and Jay Feely. Can't you picture Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb trading three-and-outs all night long? Can't you see defenders rolling on top of those guys in the backfield? Can't you picture Jeff Fisher shaking his head on the sidelines while Ken Whisenhunt fist-pumps after a 45-yarder from Jay Feely? It's gonna be one of those types of games. Just another Thursday.
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