Busy week for me, so we're doing short picks.
Heroes:
1) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Falcons like to throw, face an abominable pass defense this week in Tampa, and Julio Jones will at best be limited this week. That means Roddy carries the load in the receiving game, with Tony Gonzo catching enough passes to keep the secondary honest.
2) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
He'll rebound in a big way this week. Expect a shootout against Green Bay, with Eli racking up tons of yardage and 3 TDs.
3) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
There's no one happier to see Henne under center than yours truly. The Gabbert Era was trainwreck tucked inside a natural disaster. I expect Henne to finish the season with Top 12 QB numbers. Last week he made Blackmon and Short look like Smith and McCardell against the Texans. Now those three have an opportunity to rip the Titans.
Bums:
1) Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts (WRs - ARI)
The fact that it's Saturday and I still haven't learned the name of the Cards' starting QB tells you how much faith I have in this passing game.
2) Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (RBs - MIA)
Seattle: can't throw on 'em, can't run on 'em.
Sleepers:
1) Jalen Parmele (RB - JAC)
He's the every down back until MJD returns. Oh, and the Jags finally have a passing game to keep defenses honest.
2) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
The Dwayne Allen Sleeper TE Lounge is still open. Fleener is set to miss another week. Take the 6 catches, 60+ yards and enjoy.
3) Browns D/ST and Panthers D/ST
They face Chaz Batch and Nicholas Foles, respectively.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Week 11: Heroes, Bust, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
He's gonna pop this week. I was a week premature with my prediction of a monster game from Spiller (he still had 13 points in a standard league), but he's due to explode tonight at home against Miami. With Fred Jackson out and Buffalo's receiving corps banged-up, Spiller should net 150 total yards and--let's go bold--two TDs.
And while we're on the subject of Buffalo, when the hell is Chan Gailey going to wake up and realize that Fred Jackson is 80 years old and as fumble-prone as they come? If Joe Philbin is willing to sit Reggie Bush for the entire game after a fumble, why can't Gailey drop the same punishment on Jackson? Otherwise, Spiller's best years are just going to waste.
2) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Only one TD on the season so far, but I like Steve Smith against bad pass defenses. And Tampa has an atrocious pass defense. Tampa also has a high-scoring offense (no less than 28 points in a game since their Bye week), so this one has shootout writing all over it. 100 yards and a TD for Smith.
3) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
Calling it right now: Andy Dandy will be a Top 5 QB next year. Pencil him in as your 8th round pick and thank me around New Year's 2014. As for this weekend, Dalton gets to shred/maul/annihilate/etc. an abysmal Chiefs secondary that has given up at least 2 TDs in seven of nine games this year. Andy Dandy had four TDs last week, and he's playing a team that is on a short week following a gut-crunching overtime loss.
Busts:
1) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Forte has a horrific match-up, and I just can't trust Brandon Marshall. Sooner or later defenses will have to give him the Calvin Johnson treatment (aka triple coverage) and see if the other homeless men posing as Bears WRs can produce. This week I don't like Marshall for three reasons: 1) a lack of Jay Cutler (although Jason Campbell looked quite serviceable against Houston); 2) the 49ers defense (which I realize can be beaten through the air--but honestly, after Marshall was the only player with more than 10 receiving yards for Chicago last week, how can't you build your defensive strategy around snuffing him out?); and 3) the inevitable lack of a run game.
2) Ryan Tannehill (QB - MIA)
He's a sexy bye week filler pick because he gets to face the Bills, but there's no reason why you should trust a rookie QB on the road on Thurday night. Even against the Bills. Dig deeper on waivers if you're still desperate for a QB.
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
It's almost closing time at the Dwayne Allen Fantasy Sleeper Lounge, so please sneak in for a last second drink before Coby Fleener shuts the place down. Pull up a stool and we can discuss how this week's Colts/Pats game will be a shootout, with the Patriots surrendering the 4th most points to fantasy TEs.
2) Mohamed Sanu (WR - CIN)
A buddy of mine talked up Sanu during the offseason, and I'm starting to drink the Kool-Aid. Last week Sanu was second on the team in targets (6), catches (4), and yards (47). He also tacked on a TD and got Andy Dandy talking during the week about his reliability as a WR. Sanu should have a decent encore, and if KC decides to key-in on AJ Green, Sanu could post WR2 numbers.
3) Rams D/ST
Mark Sanchez.
That's it. That's my write-up for the Rams D/ST this week. Oh? You want more? Let's try it again.
Mark Sanchez, on the road.
1) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
He's gonna pop this week. I was a week premature with my prediction of a monster game from Spiller (he still had 13 points in a standard league), but he's due to explode tonight at home against Miami. With Fred Jackson out and Buffalo's receiving corps banged-up, Spiller should net 150 total yards and--let's go bold--two TDs.
And while we're on the subject of Buffalo, when the hell is Chan Gailey going to wake up and realize that Fred Jackson is 80 years old and as fumble-prone as they come? If Joe Philbin is willing to sit Reggie Bush for the entire game after a fumble, why can't Gailey drop the same punishment on Jackson? Otherwise, Spiller's best years are just going to waste.
2) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Only one TD on the season so far, but I like Steve Smith against bad pass defenses. And Tampa has an atrocious pass defense. Tampa also has a high-scoring offense (no less than 28 points in a game since their Bye week), so this one has shootout writing all over it. 100 yards and a TD for Smith.
3) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
Calling it right now: Andy Dandy will be a Top 5 QB next year. Pencil him in as your 8th round pick and thank me around New Year's 2014. As for this weekend, Dalton gets to shred/maul/annihilate/etc. an abysmal Chiefs secondary that has given up at least 2 TDs in seven of nine games this year. Andy Dandy had four TDs last week, and he's playing a team that is on a short week following a gut-crunching overtime loss.
Busts:
1) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Forte has a horrific match-up, and I just can't trust Brandon Marshall. Sooner or later defenses will have to give him the Calvin Johnson treatment (aka triple coverage) and see if the other homeless men posing as Bears WRs can produce. This week I don't like Marshall for three reasons: 1) a lack of Jay Cutler (although Jason Campbell looked quite serviceable against Houston); 2) the 49ers defense (which I realize can be beaten through the air--but honestly, after Marshall was the only player with more than 10 receiving yards for Chicago last week, how can't you build your defensive strategy around snuffing him out?); and 3) the inevitable lack of a run game.
2) Ryan Tannehill (QB - MIA)
He's a sexy bye week filler pick because he gets to face the Bills, but there's no reason why you should trust a rookie QB on the road on Thurday night. Even against the Bills. Dig deeper on waivers if you're still desperate for a QB.
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
It's almost closing time at the Dwayne Allen Fantasy Sleeper Lounge, so please sneak in for a last second drink before Coby Fleener shuts the place down. Pull up a stool and we can discuss how this week's Colts/Pats game will be a shootout, with the Patriots surrendering the 4th most points to fantasy TEs.
2) Mohamed Sanu (WR - CIN)
A buddy of mine talked up Sanu during the offseason, and I'm starting to drink the Kool-Aid. Last week Sanu was second on the team in targets (6), catches (4), and yards (47). He also tacked on a TD and got Andy Dandy talking during the week about his reliability as a WR. Sanu should have a decent encore, and if KC decides to key-in on AJ Green, Sanu could post WR2 numbers.
3) Rams D/ST
Mark Sanchez.
That's it. That's my write-up for the Rams D/ST this week. Oh? You want more? Let's try it again.
Mark Sanchez, on the road.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Week 10: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE)
With Aaron Hernandez officially listed as out, you can bank on the Brady-Gronk connection hitting for at least two TDs. Patriots have had a week to rest and prepare for another beatdown of the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady has never lost to Buffalo at home, and we the two teams played back in Week 4, Brady posted his best fantasy day of the season. Expect a repeat, and expect Gronk to reap the benefits.
2) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Julio has had two straight 120+ yard games, and both came against better defenses than what he'll face on Sunday in New Orleans. Throw in the face that Drew Brees will make this a shootout, and you can expect fantasy points flying through the air for three hours.
3) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
The Patriots have the 3rd-best fantasy run defense, but check out some of the RBs they've faced: Chris Johnson, Beanie Wells, Injured Fred Jackson, Injured CJ Spiller, and Shonne Greene. This time around Spiller is healthy, and Chan Gailey has promised to increase Spiller's workload (hey, better late than never). Spiller has absolutely thrived when he's received the majority of the carries, and even if Buffalo falls behind early, he's electric in the passing game. Expect one big TD from Spiller, compounded by an assload of yardage.
4) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
He's playing his old team, the Chargers, who have probably done nothing but study Doug Martin footage all week long. The Chargers are pretty tough against the run as is, so the streaking hot Josh Freeman will get to show off in the passing game. And if anyone's eager to show off against San Diego, it's Vincent Jackson. If he was willing to sit out nearly an entire season of his Bolt's career, imagine how motivated he'll be when they come to town (during the 1pm timeslot no less).
Bums:
1) Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Everyone loves to point at the fact that Wilson's TD:INT ratio is 9:0 at home, but he'll see the best pass defense of his short career on Sunday. Expect heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch and solid defensive play from Seattle.
2) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips vowed to double-cover Marshall on every play Sunday night. Now, Marshall has proven he's capable of beating double-coverage, but when it's shutdown corner Jonathan Joseph plus one, you'd be wise to look elsewhere for a stud WR this week. As for Matt Forte, here's a stat for you: zero. That's the number of rushing TDs the Texans have allowed this season. This game will be an offensive disaster for the Bears. Expect Cutler to be on his back more often than not tomorrow night. And when he is upright, I expect J.J. Watt to be batting passes everywhere.
Sleepers:
1) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
The phrase "sophomore slump" keeps getting thrown around, but Dalton has posted double-digits in all but two games this season. A.J. Green is still playing at an elite level, Jermaine Gresham is heating up, and Dalton will be at home to face a dreadful Giants pass defense (ranked 26th in the league, 18th in terms of fantasy pass defense). Andy Dandy should post a solid day, possibly a top-5 day if Eli forces a shootout.
2) Emmanuel Sanders (WR - PIT)
Sneaky play. Sanders has been solid as Pitt's No. 3 WR this year, and no he gets bumped up to No. 2 with Antonio Brown out. And his opponent? The lowly Chiefs, who've given up 6 TDs and over 500 yards to WRs in their past three games.
3) Taiwan Jones (RB - OAK)
It's risky since Jones has only had one carry all year, but if you're digging for a cheap/desperate RB this week, roll the dice on Taiwan Jones. He's speedy, he's starting, and the Ravens have surrendered double-digit fantasy points to RBs in every. single. game. this season.
1) Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE)
With Aaron Hernandez officially listed as out, you can bank on the Brady-Gronk connection hitting for at least two TDs. Patriots have had a week to rest and prepare for another beatdown of the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady has never lost to Buffalo at home, and we the two teams played back in Week 4, Brady posted his best fantasy day of the season. Expect a repeat, and expect Gronk to reap the benefits.
2) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Julio has had two straight 120+ yard games, and both came against better defenses than what he'll face on Sunday in New Orleans. Throw in the face that Drew Brees will make this a shootout, and you can expect fantasy points flying through the air for three hours.
3) CJ Spiller (RB - BUF)
The Patriots have the 3rd-best fantasy run defense, but check out some of the RBs they've faced: Chris Johnson, Beanie Wells, Injured Fred Jackson, Injured CJ Spiller, and Shonne Greene. This time around Spiller is healthy, and Chan Gailey has promised to increase Spiller's workload (hey, better late than never). Spiller has absolutely thrived when he's received the majority of the carries, and even if Buffalo falls behind early, he's electric in the passing game. Expect one big TD from Spiller, compounded by an assload of yardage.
4) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
He's playing his old team, the Chargers, who have probably done nothing but study Doug Martin footage all week long. The Chargers are pretty tough against the run as is, so the streaking hot Josh Freeman will get to show off in the passing game. And if anyone's eager to show off against San Diego, it's Vincent Jackson. If he was willing to sit out nearly an entire season of his Bolt's career, imagine how motivated he'll be when they come to town (during the 1pm timeslot no less).
Bums:
1) Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Everyone loves to point at the fact that Wilson's TD:INT ratio is 9:0 at home, but he'll see the best pass defense of his short career on Sunday. Expect heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch and solid defensive play from Seattle.
2) Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte (WR and RB - CHI)
Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips vowed to double-cover Marshall on every play Sunday night. Now, Marshall has proven he's capable of beating double-coverage, but when it's shutdown corner Jonathan Joseph plus one, you'd be wise to look elsewhere for a stud WR this week. As for Matt Forte, here's a stat for you: zero. That's the number of rushing TDs the Texans have allowed this season. This game will be an offensive disaster for the Bears. Expect Cutler to be on his back more often than not tomorrow night. And when he is upright, I expect J.J. Watt to be batting passes everywhere.
Sleepers:
1) Andy Dalton (QB - CIN)
The phrase "sophomore slump" keeps getting thrown around, but Dalton has posted double-digits in all but two games this season. A.J. Green is still playing at an elite level, Jermaine Gresham is heating up, and Dalton will be at home to face a dreadful Giants pass defense (ranked 26th in the league, 18th in terms of fantasy pass defense). Andy Dandy should post a solid day, possibly a top-5 day if Eli forces a shootout.
2) Emmanuel Sanders (WR - PIT)
Sneaky play. Sanders has been solid as Pitt's No. 3 WR this year, and no he gets bumped up to No. 2 with Antonio Brown out. And his opponent? The lowly Chiefs, who've given up 6 TDs and over 500 yards to WRs in their past three games.
3) Taiwan Jones (RB - OAK)
It's risky since Jones has only had one carry all year, but if you're digging for a cheap/desperate RB this week, roll the dice on Taiwan Jones. He's speedy, he's starting, and the Ravens have surrendered double-digit fantasy points to RBs in every. single. game. this season.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 9: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Last week Cam Newton targeted Steve Smith SIXTEEN times for seven catches and triple-figure yardage. That was against the Bears, who pride themselves on their defense. This week Steve Smith faces Washington's laughable secondary. Also note that Steve Smith is well overdue for a TD--hasn't scored all year, but bank on at least one TD against the Skins.
2) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's at home this week, and he's facing a Miami defense that can only be beat through the air. Start Luck and anyone else in the Colts passing game this week.
3) Alfred Morris (RB - WAS)
The Panthers are gashed with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and they had a porous run defense to begin with. Morris has hit triple-figures in 3 of the last 5 weeks, and he's primed to make it 4 for 6.
Bums:
1) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Seattle's defense ranks third against fantasy RBs, and Christian Ponder has regressed to the point where defenses can afford to stack the box. Ponder had 58 yards passing against Arizona, then collected a good chunk of his 251 yards against Tampa in garbage time. Wouldn't you stack the box?
2) CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Until one of these guys kills the other in cold blood, this timeshare is going to stifle what would otherwise be phenomenal upside. While you can normally get around 10-15 points from either of these RBs, this week Houston should shut them down. 8 points is the ceiling for either of them this week.
3) Roddy White and Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
I'm listing them both here because I don't think it's possible to trust either of them against the Cowboys on Sunday. Julio is notorious for underperforming at home this year, and Dallas' secondary is solid enough to keep them both in check. I still think Matt Ryan is a safe start, and I like Tony Gonzales a ton this week (he's way overdue for a TD).
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
Oh, boy, do I love Dwayne Allen this week. He garners a reliable 3 or 4 fantasy points most weeks, but on Sunday the Colts will be without starting TE Coby Fleener. That means more balls will sail Allen's way, and the match-up (against Miami's brutal run defense) should force Andrew Luck to pull the trigger to no end. Expect 60-70 yards and a TD for Allen.
2) Justin Blackmon (WR - JAC)
Last week's sign of the apocalypse was Blaine Gabbert's 300+ yard passing effort (Congrats, Blaine, it only took you 22 tries!). Now Cecil Shorts is everybody's darling as far as Jags receivers go, and I like him this week, but I think Justin Blackmon might stop dropping passes and hang onto a TD pass. And, hey, the Lions will be throwing and scoring, so Gabbert will have to play catch-up.
3) Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
It's Thursday night, which means the Chiefs/Chargers match-up has to play out in one of two ways: defensive borefest or lopsided defeat. I say we get the former (I'm calling 20-13 Chargers), complete with 2 INTs, 3 sacks, and a fumble recovery from the Chiefs D. It's a slightly risky play, but until Phil Rivers clears his head, start the opposing defense, especially on a short week.
1) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
Last week Cam Newton targeted Steve Smith SIXTEEN times for seven catches and triple-figure yardage. That was against the Bears, who pride themselves on their defense. This week Steve Smith faces Washington's laughable secondary. Also note that Steve Smith is well overdue for a TD--hasn't scored all year, but bank on at least one TD against the Skins.
2) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's at home this week, and he's facing a Miami defense that can only be beat through the air. Start Luck and anyone else in the Colts passing game this week.
3) Alfred Morris (RB - WAS)
The Panthers are gashed with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and they had a porous run defense to begin with. Morris has hit triple-figures in 3 of the last 5 weeks, and he's primed to make it 4 for 6.
Bums:
1) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Seattle's defense ranks third against fantasy RBs, and Christian Ponder has regressed to the point where defenses can afford to stack the box. Ponder had 58 yards passing against Arizona, then collected a good chunk of his 251 yards against Tampa in garbage time. Wouldn't you stack the box?
2) CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Until one of these guys kills the other in cold blood, this timeshare is going to stifle what would otherwise be phenomenal upside. While you can normally get around 10-15 points from either of these RBs, this week Houston should shut them down. 8 points is the ceiling for either of them this week.
3) Roddy White and Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
I'm listing them both here because I don't think it's possible to trust either of them against the Cowboys on Sunday. Julio is notorious for underperforming at home this year, and Dallas' secondary is solid enough to keep them both in check. I still think Matt Ryan is a safe start, and I like Tony Gonzales a ton this week (he's way overdue for a TD).
Sleepers:
1) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
Oh, boy, do I love Dwayne Allen this week. He garners a reliable 3 or 4 fantasy points most weeks, but on Sunday the Colts will be without starting TE Coby Fleener. That means more balls will sail Allen's way, and the match-up (against Miami's brutal run defense) should force Andrew Luck to pull the trigger to no end. Expect 60-70 yards and a TD for Allen.
2) Justin Blackmon (WR - JAC)
Last week's sign of the apocalypse was Blaine Gabbert's 300+ yard passing effort (Congrats, Blaine, it only took you 22 tries!). Now Cecil Shorts is everybody's darling as far as Jags receivers go, and I like him this week, but I think Justin Blackmon might stop dropping passes and hang onto a TD pass. And, hey, the Lions will be throwing and scoring, so Gabbert will have to play catch-up.
3) Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
It's Thursday night, which means the Chiefs/Chargers match-up has to play out in one of two ways: defensive borefest or lopsided defeat. I say we get the former (I'm calling 20-13 Chargers), complete with 2 INTs, 3 sacks, and a fumble recovery from the Chiefs D. It's a slightly risky play, but until Phil Rivers clears his head, start the opposing defense, especially on a short week.
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