Trying something new today. The other night I sent the following Facebook message to a buddy who's a diehard Detriot Lions fan:
"'I'm not an elite quarterback and I never will be.' - Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions"
The fake quote got a bunch of laughs and about a dozen likes, and I got thinking: Wouldn't that work for a fantasy column gimmick?
Let's roll it out and see how this goes.
Quotes from Quarterbacks: February 27, 2012
"Everyone's really excited about me heading to Kansas City and uniting with Andy Reid. That guy is a genius when it comes to coaching up QBs, but I think people need to realize that I was a total bum until Jim Harbaugh put me in a cushy situation with a ball-control offense and an elite defense. At the end of the day, I'm still just the poor man's Joe Flacco, minus the rifle arm." - Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Alex brings up some good points here. He certainly never impressed anyone prior to the Harbaugh era in San Fran, and even then, Crazy Al was never fantasy-starter material. Never the type of guy to march the team back from a deficit. So even though Andy Reid has a gift for bringing out the best in QBs (McNabb and Garcia instantly come to mind), Alex Smith should not be high on your draft boards come August. Is he worth a look as a backup? Yeah, kinda. A lot depends on the future of Dwayne Bowe and the rest of the receiving corps in KC. Steve Breston is gonzo, so if you can live with the idea of you fantasy QB leaning on Jonathan Baldwin, hey, reach for Crazy Al in the 10th or 11th round.
"I just won a Super Bowl and an SB MVP to go along with it, but even I wouldn't draft myself above the 8th round in fantasy. Not when I'm costing the team loads of money, my center just retired, and my best WR is threatening to retire if he doesn't get a good deal." - Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Joe has a lot of upcoming changes on his mind. Obviously, the biggest issue here is his upcoming contract and how much it'll cost the Ravens, who also need to resign Anquan Boldin if they want that passing game to look anything like it did during their playoff run. What Joe didn't mention is that aside from his skull-shattering playoff run that included a 11:0 TD-to-INT ratio, he's been hot and cold throughout his whole career. In 2012 alone, he had six games with single-digit FPs. That's not the type of QB I'd want to spend a 5th round pick on (you watch, people will be reaching in the 5th for Joe Flacco, come August).
"I had the lowest completion percentage of any QB last year, and now my team's new OC is shifting to a more run-oriented system. Not only that, he's shortening up my passing routes, and to be honest, I'm starting to think my rookie year performance was a fluke." - Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Andrew is onto something. Tebow may bear all the groundball jokes, but there's no denying that Luck sucks at completing passes. His 54.1% completion percentage was the 2nd worst among starting QBs last season (ahead of only my boy, Chad Henne). And yes, they did just get a new OC in Pep Hamilton, who has promised more of a West Coast offense with a heavier emphasis on the running game. So gone will be the days on Luck chucking downfield all the time. Luck obviously still has plenty of passing options, but if you're banking on him having a repeat of his rookie year, stop. Also one more thing: Luck had a grand total of 5 rushing TDs last season. That's 30 fantasy points. Think he'll get five again? Me neither.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Friday, February 15, 2013
Things Get Uglier in J-Ville
"Give it some time" is what friends, family, sports media, and the Jaguars PR folks told me about the abominable new logo:
 |
| No thanks. Go back to the bag of Cheetos you came from. |
Well, it's been a week, and I still can't look at the new Jaguars logo without feeling ashamed, confused, and momentarily queasy. There's so much to not like about this ugly slab of clipart, but for starters, the new logo looks thin and emaciated, like the anorexic Hollywood skank version (a tribute to the Jags-to-LA rumors, perhaps?) of the old logo. What does that say about the team? That they're starving themselves of wins? That they want to send the same message that Gabbert's goldie locks sent back in 2011? I could speculate all day, but if you're going to chance a football logo that has stood for nearly twenty years, make it sleeker or meatier or angrier. Don't give us something that belongs on a bag of Cheetos, or worse, a WNBA uniform.
The Jags should've considered previous logo switches that rocked, like Tampa's. The original Bucs logo looked like a 70s pornstar with a lifetime tan salon membership, but in the late 90s Tampa swapped it for a shredded pirate flag with a skull and crossing cutlasses. The message: this is a football team, and we're gonna look like one. If only the Jags held that same mentality before hiring Disney artists to ink their new symbol.
I'm getting really picky here, but the spots on the new logo aren't even Jaguar spots. Look it up if you don't believe me, but the defining marks of a Jaguars follow a square-or-circular pattern--they are not simply dots or splotches. What we have here with the new logo are indistinct spots, and this logo could work for the Los Angeles Leopards or the California Cheetahs if things come to that.
And that's what bothers me the most about this new logo: It's another strike on the ever-growing list of mistakes that the Jags seem to make in preparation for relocation. And get this--it's been a week since the logo was introduced, and it's not even the most recent blunder by the boys in blue-green. Earlier this week Jags GM David Caldwell said he would be giving Blaine Gabbert one more chance to compete for the starting job. Unless he's competing with Ryan Leaf, it shouldn't be much of a competition, but for whatever reason the Jags front office can't get enough of Blaine Gabbert. Despite his 4-20 record as a starter, the front office does nothing but put faith in this guy like a todder with Santa Claus.The entire sports world from ESPN experts to casual fans knows that Gabbert is a total bum, yet the Jags are more than happy to let him toss one-yard passes for another year?
Make it stop.
Just let Chad Henne make the 2013 season interesting until we take a QB with our first round pick in 2014.
Monday, January 14, 2013
2013: The Year of the Early-Round QB?
After Colin Kaepernick finished detonating nukes all over Green Bay's defense on Saturday night, I got thinking: Is Kaep a 2nd round QB next season? In standard leagues he never dipped below 14 points in a game he started this season. If 14 is your floor for a fantasy QB, you're not complaining--especially if he posts the occasional 30 or 40+ game like he did in Green Bay the other night.
So where does that put us for top Fantasy QBs next season? Obviously, you have Rodgers, Brees, and Brady as your gold, silver, and bronze, with Cam Newton not too far behind. Those four should almost certainly be off the board by the end of Round 1. Round 2 could mark the departure of Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and (if he undergoes a miraculous recovery) Bob Griffin The Third. Then... I say you jump on Kaepernick. Consistency, rushing yards, higher-scoring offense, what's not to love?
Now let's say the first two rounds of your 2013 draft (just 8 months away, kids!) mark the departure of 7 or 8 signal callers. If you go RB-RB or RB-WR and let the rest of your league lose it's mind over the QB position (can't you already picture one of your buddies reaching for injury-prone Matthew Stafford in the 3rd round?), you could have a solid RB-RB-RB-WR-WR lineup by Round 6. Then pick up someone like Eli Manning or Andy Dalton after the dust settles.
Trust me, this is a great year to wait on a QB. Now here's a way-too-early draft guide for the early rounds:
Round 1: Elite RB (Peterson, Foster, Doug Martin, Lynch) or Calvin Johnson
Round 2: MJD (he's had a year off; he'll be fresh and ready to carry the Jags on his back, AP-lite style), Brandon Marshall, C.J. Spiller, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant
Rounds 3-5: Michael Crabtree, Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb
So where does that put us for top Fantasy QBs next season? Obviously, you have Rodgers, Brees, and Brady as your gold, silver, and bronze, with Cam Newton not too far behind. Those four should almost certainly be off the board by the end of Round 1. Round 2 could mark the departure of Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and (if he undergoes a miraculous recovery) Bob Griffin The Third. Then... I say you jump on Kaepernick. Consistency, rushing yards, higher-scoring offense, what's not to love?
Now let's say the first two rounds of your 2013 draft (just 8 months away, kids!) mark the departure of 7 or 8 signal callers. If you go RB-RB or RB-WR and let the rest of your league lose it's mind over the QB position (can't you already picture one of your buddies reaching for injury-prone Matthew Stafford in the 3rd round?), you could have a solid RB-RB-RB-WR-WR lineup by Round 6. Then pick up someone like Eli Manning or Andy Dalton after the dust settles.
Trust me, this is a great year to wait on a QB. Now here's a way-too-early draft guide for the early rounds:
Round 1: Elite RB (Peterson, Foster, Doug Martin, Lynch) or Calvin Johnson
Round 2: MJD (he's had a year off; he'll be fresh and ready to carry the Jags on his back, AP-lite style), Brandon Marshall, C.J. Spiller, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant
Rounds 3-5: Michael Crabtree, Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb
Friday, December 21, 2012
Week 16: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Here, have some stats: In seven road games this season, the Saints have surrendered 20+ FPTs to opposing QBs five times. This week the Saints travel to Dallas to face Tony Romo, who has posted double-digit FPTs every games since his Week 4 meltdown against Chicago.
2) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
Ravens have been horrific against the pass and Nicks is banged up, so logic points to Cruz bouncing back from his abysmal performance from last week. Plus, don't you think the Giants will be a tad vengeful after their shutout loss to Atlanta?
3) Stevan Ridley (RB - NE)
Nothing leaves me cold and lonely this holiday season like thoughts of the Jags' defense. Ridley may have been in Belichick's doghouse last week, but consider that Ridley had posted a TD in six straight games prior to the San Fran Slopfest. And it's the Jags. If you run, you score.
Bums:
1) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Even if he weren't facing a brutal Broncos defense, I'd still be wary of the fact that T-Rich crashed into the rookie wall in recent weeks. Although he's had six TDs in the past four weeks, his yardage totals have been on a steady decline since Week 8 (from 122 to 28 over an eight week span that included a bye week).
2) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Injured, on a short week, playing in a game that the Falcons don't exactly need to win. Start Julio, start Tony G, just back away from Roddy.
3) Dennis Pitta (TE - BAL)
He put up gorgeous numbers in garbage time last week (7/125/2TD), but that was against the Broncos' last ranked TE defense. This week Pitta faces a Giants team that has only surrendered three TDs to TEs all season long.
Sleepers:
1) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
I had Henne in my sleeper section last week and he gave an average performance (221 yds, 0 TDs), and this week I expect him to crack 300 yards passing and 2 TDs. Being a lifelong Jags fan, I know that my boys have never defeated the Patriots in the regular season. They will be down big and throwing lots to make things look respectable.
2) Stevie Johnson (WR - BUF)
Not the deepest of sleepers, but Buffalo's getting ugly to the point where you might forget Stevie exists. He does exist, and he does have a favorable matchup in sunny Miami against a defense that has surrendered 90+ yards to #1 WRs in the past two weeks.
3) Tony Scheffler (TE - DET)
Pettigrew's out and Stafford can't throw to Calvin Johnson on every play. The Lions will be throwing all night and I expect The Shuffler to finish second in targets, catches, and yards. If he grabs a TD, hello bonus points.
1) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Here, have some stats: In seven road games this season, the Saints have surrendered 20+ FPTs to opposing QBs five times. This week the Saints travel to Dallas to face Tony Romo, who has posted double-digit FPTs every games since his Week 4 meltdown against Chicago.
2) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
Ravens have been horrific against the pass and Nicks is banged up, so logic points to Cruz bouncing back from his abysmal performance from last week. Plus, don't you think the Giants will be a tad vengeful after their shutout loss to Atlanta?
3) Stevan Ridley (RB - NE)
Nothing leaves me cold and lonely this holiday season like thoughts of the Jags' defense. Ridley may have been in Belichick's doghouse last week, but consider that Ridley had posted a TD in six straight games prior to the San Fran Slopfest. And it's the Jags. If you run, you score.
Bums:
1) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Even if he weren't facing a brutal Broncos defense, I'd still be wary of the fact that T-Rich crashed into the rookie wall in recent weeks. Although he's had six TDs in the past four weeks, his yardage totals have been on a steady decline since Week 8 (from 122 to 28 over an eight week span that included a bye week).
2) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Injured, on a short week, playing in a game that the Falcons don't exactly need to win. Start Julio, start Tony G, just back away from Roddy.
3) Dennis Pitta (TE - BAL)
He put up gorgeous numbers in garbage time last week (7/125/2TD), but that was against the Broncos' last ranked TE defense. This week Pitta faces a Giants team that has only surrendered three TDs to TEs all season long.
Sleepers:
1) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
I had Henne in my sleeper section last week and he gave an average performance (221 yds, 0 TDs), and this week I expect him to crack 300 yards passing and 2 TDs. Being a lifelong Jags fan, I know that my boys have never defeated the Patriots in the regular season. They will be down big and throwing lots to make things look respectable.
2) Stevie Johnson (WR - BUF)
Not the deepest of sleepers, but Buffalo's getting ugly to the point where you might forget Stevie exists. He does exist, and he does have a favorable matchup in sunny Miami against a defense that has surrendered 90+ yards to #1 WRs in the past two weeks.
3) Tony Scheffler (TE - DET)
Pettigrew's out and Stafford can't throw to Calvin Johnson on every play. The Lions will be throwing all night and I expect The Shuffler to finish second in targets, catches, and yards. If he grabs a TD, hello bonus points.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Week 15: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Week 13: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Week 12: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Busy week for me, so we're doing short picks.
Heroes:
1) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Falcons like to throw, face an abominable pass defense this week in Tampa, and Julio Jones will at best be limited this week. That means Roddy carries the load in the receiving game, with Tony Gonzo catching enough passes to keep the secondary honest.
2) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
He'll rebound in a big way this week. Expect a shootout against Green Bay, with Eli racking up tons of yardage and 3 TDs.
3) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
There's no one happier to see Henne under center than yours truly. The Gabbert Era was trainwreck tucked inside a natural disaster. I expect Henne to finish the season with Top 12 QB numbers. Last week he made Blackmon and Short look like Smith and McCardell against the Texans. Now those three have an opportunity to rip the Titans.
Bums:
1) Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts (WRs - ARI)
The fact that it's Saturday and I still haven't learned the name of the Cards' starting QB tells you how much faith I have in this passing game.
2) Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (RBs - MIA)
Seattle: can't throw on 'em, can't run on 'em.
Sleepers:
1) Jalen Parmele (RB - JAC)
He's the every down back until MJD returns. Oh, and the Jags finally have a passing game to keep defenses honest.
2) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
The Dwayne Allen Sleeper TE Lounge is still open. Fleener is set to miss another week. Take the 6 catches, 60+ yards and enjoy.
3) Browns D/ST and Panthers D/ST
They face Chaz Batch and Nicholas Foles, respectively.
Heroes:
1) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Falcons like to throw, face an abominable pass defense this week in Tampa, and Julio Jones will at best be limited this week. That means Roddy carries the load in the receiving game, with Tony Gonzo catching enough passes to keep the secondary honest.
2) Eli Manning (QB - NYG)
He'll rebound in a big way this week. Expect a shootout against Green Bay, with Eli racking up tons of yardage and 3 TDs.
3) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
There's no one happier to see Henne under center than yours truly. The Gabbert Era was trainwreck tucked inside a natural disaster. I expect Henne to finish the season with Top 12 QB numbers. Last week he made Blackmon and Short look like Smith and McCardell against the Texans. Now those three have an opportunity to rip the Titans.
Bums:
1) Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts (WRs - ARI)
The fact that it's Saturday and I still haven't learned the name of the Cards' starting QB tells you how much faith I have in this passing game.
2) Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (RBs - MIA)
Seattle: can't throw on 'em, can't run on 'em.
Sleepers:
1) Jalen Parmele (RB - JAC)
He's the every down back until MJD returns. Oh, and the Jags finally have a passing game to keep defenses honest.
2) Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
The Dwayne Allen Sleeper TE Lounge is still open. Fleener is set to miss another week. Take the 6 catches, 60+ yards and enjoy.
3) Browns D/ST and Panthers D/ST
They face Chaz Batch and Nicholas Foles, respectively.
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