Heroes:
1) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Here, have some stats: In seven road games this season, the Saints have surrendered 20+ FPTs to opposing QBs five times. This week the Saints travel to Dallas to face Tony Romo, who has posted double-digit FPTs every games since his Week 4 meltdown against Chicago.
2) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
Ravens have been horrific against the pass and Nicks is banged up, so logic points to Cruz bouncing back from his abysmal performance from last week. Plus, don't you think the Giants will be a tad vengeful after their shutout loss to Atlanta?
3) Stevan Ridley (RB - NE)
Nothing leaves me cold and lonely this holiday season like thoughts of the Jags' defense. Ridley may have been in Belichick's doghouse last week, but consider that Ridley had posted a TD in six straight games prior to the San Fran Slopfest. And it's the Jags. If you run, you score.
Bums:
1) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
Even if he weren't facing a brutal Broncos defense, I'd still be wary of the fact that T-Rich crashed into the rookie wall in recent weeks. Although he's had six TDs in the past four weeks, his yardage totals have been on a steady decline since Week 8 (from 122 to 28 over an eight week span that included a bye week).
2) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Injured, on a short week, playing in a game that the Falcons don't exactly need to win. Start Julio, start Tony G, just back away from Roddy.
3) Dennis Pitta (TE - BAL)
He put up gorgeous numbers in garbage time last week (7/125/2TD), but that was against the Broncos' last ranked TE defense. This week Pitta faces a Giants team that has only surrendered three TDs to TEs all season long.
Sleepers:
1) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
I had Henne in my sleeper section last week and he gave an average performance (221 yds, 0 TDs), and this week I expect him to crack 300 yards passing and 2 TDs. Being a lifelong Jags fan, I know that my boys have never defeated the Patriots in the regular season. They will be down big and throwing lots to make things look respectable.
2) Stevie Johnson (WR - BUF)
Not the deepest of sleepers, but Buffalo's getting ugly to the point where you might forget Stevie exists. He does exist, and he does have a favorable matchup in sunny Miami against a defense that has surrendered 90+ yards to #1 WRs in the past two weeks.
3) Tony Scheffler (TE - DET)
Pettigrew's out and Stafford can't throw to Calvin Johnson on every play. The Lions will be throwing all night and I expect The Shuffler to finish second in targets, catches, and yards. If he grabs a TD, hello bonus points.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Week 15: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
1) Anyone involved in the Giants and Falcons passing games
It's a playoff preview, the Giants need to win, the Falcons have everything to prove, both teams love to throw, the secondaries have been grilled by upper-tier QBs (look away from Drew Brees' recent meltdowns), there are at least three viable passcatchers on each team, I could go on and on.
2) Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
Three straight 100-yard games and he faces the team that allowed Doug Martin to score 51 FPs. Even if Charles doesn't score, expect to see him crack double-digit FPs with ease. The only possible concern is that Oakland has had ten day's rest and preparation--which stops being much of a concern when you come back to the word "Oakland."
3) Michael Crabtree (WR - SF)
Bill Belichick schemes to torture young QBs and eliminate standout WRs, but Crabtree has had a whopping nineteen catches in the past two weeks alone. He's gold in PPR leagues, and he should get at least one TD as the Niners play catchup this week.
Bums:
1) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS)
I love Bob Griffin, but not enough to recommend him on a week when he'll be limited in his mobility. Sure, he's tied for the highest QB Rating this year, but if it's fantasy upside you're looking for, you'll be wagering on his legs. And don't think he's healthy enough to post his usual big numbers against Cleveland's underrated defense.
2) Nick Foles (QB - PHI)
I've been saying it all season long: don't start offensive players on Thursday nights unless you absolutely have to. And chances are, if you have Foles, he's your backup. Don't get cute and expect a repeat 25+ point performance against Cincy's suddenly solid pass defense.
3) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
Word around these parts is that some Gronk fellow is returning to the lineup this week. If Gronk plays, you can forget about Hernandez's fantasy value. And even if Hernandez is the only TE in town, I'd rather have Wes Welker against San Fran, who has struggle to handle slot WRs (like the Welker-clone, Danny Amendola)
Sleepers:
1) Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm putting him in the sleeper section because he's gone silent in recent weeks, failing to hit double-digit FPs in a standard league in 5 straight games. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are ranked dead last against opposing #2 wideouts, so logic points to double-digit Decker this weekend. Manning and Decker also got back on the same page last week, so it's finally time to trust a Bronco receiver other than Demaryius Thomas again.
2) Chad Henne (QB - JAC)
Yeah, I'm a homer, but you have to love the fact that Henne will be returning to his old stomping ground in Miami this week. He'll want to prove 1) that the Dolphins made a mistake in releasing him and 2) that the Jaguars mustn't do the same this offseason. Bonus points to Henne if Cecil Shorts plays.
3) Bilal Powell (RB - NYJ)
Double-digit FPs in three of his past four, and the Jets face an atrocious Titans run defense that allowed Vick Ballard to garner 104 total yards last week.
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Week 13: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
1) The Manning Bros. (QB - DEN & NYG)
Both draw horrendous pass defenses in games that could become shootouts. Start the brothers and ANY receiver connected to them. I'm serious, ANY. If you can start Marvin Harrison or Amani Toomer, do it. There will be a lot of points to go around, and in all seriousness, I could see Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks all hitting double-digits with ease. Brandon Stokley and Martellus Bennett make for nice sleepers as well.
2) All your Jags and Bills
"Bad" doesn't even begin to describe the two defenses involved in this one. If you're looking for a cheap QB in a weekly league, start Henne or Fitzpatrick. If Stevie Johnson or Justin Blackmon are on you bench, make sure you catapult them into your lineup. If Rashad Jennings or Marcedes Lewis are on waivers, pick 'em and plug 'em in. The only major player on any offense I would advise against is Bills TE Scott Chandler. The Jags are sneaky good against opposing TEs, and Chandler seemingly only gets targets when he plays the Patriots.
3) Trent Richardson (RB - CLE)
The Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs in seven straight games. With Trent Richardson as the centerpiece of this offense, he should get at least 100 yards and a TD. Throw in the fact that the weather will supposedly get nasty, and it's fair to say T-Rich might get 30 carries. Yowza.
Bums:
1) Brandon Marshall (WR - CHI)
That's right. This week you can do better than the most-targeted guy in the league. He faces Seattle's secondary (which is fully intact since Sherman and Browner are appealing their suspensions), and that hasn't worked out for any No. 1 WR this season.
Oh, what's that? You think Marshall is matchup-proof? Fine, go roll your reckless dice on him. But first check these stats for No. 1 WRs against Seattle's secondary:
Larry Fitzgerald: 4 catches, 63 yards
Dez Bryant: 3 catches, 17 yards
Greg Jennings: 6 catches, 35 yards
Brandon Gibson: 2 catches, 28 yards
Steve Smith: 4 catches, 40 yards (on 13 targets, no less)
Brandon Lloyd: 6 catches 80 yards
Michael Crabtree: 4 catches, 31 yards
Calvin Johnson: 3 catches, 46 yards
Percy Harvin: 2 catches, 10 yards
Jeremy Kerley: 5 catches, 57 yards
Brian Hartline: 2 catches, 17 yards
Brutal, eh? Not one player on this list (which includes Calvin Johnson) eclipsed 80 yards. And not one player on this entire list caught a TD. Marshall is still startable in PPR leagues, but in standard ones, I'd highly recommend sitting Marshall if you have a solid option on the bench.
2. Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Facing Chicago's 2nd-ranked fantasy rush defense? Check. 1PM game for a West Coast team? Check. Rookie QB on the road who will inevitably make mistakes and force his team to throw? Check.
3. Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
He's on the road in Detroit this week, and while you'd think that's a slick matchup, he's just not the same without the home cooking. Has at least one pick in every road game this year, and the Lions haven't allowed more than 15 FPs to a QB at home this year. I'm not suggesting Luck will have an atrocious game this week, but if you think this is an electric matchup, think again.
Sleepers
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN - TE)
He may be too good to call a sleeper, but his stats get a major boost whenever Harvin's out. And since Green Bay score a lot of point, Chris Ponder will have to attempt to play catch-up.
2. Jets D/ST
Recipe for D/ST success:
- Play at home
- ...against a bad West Coast team at 1PM
- ...with a rookie QB making his first road start
- ...who will be trapped behind an o-line missing three starters.
3. Dallas Clark (TE - TB)
Clarke's had 2 TDs in his past three games, and at least 6 FPs in those games. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly love the guy, but the Broncos are ranked 32nd against TEs and 6th against WRs, so you have to figure there will be balls flying Clarke's way.
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