Heroes:
1. Percy Harvin (WR - MIN) and Eric Decker (WR - DEN)
I'm listing these guys together because I like them for the same reason: They're going up against two soft passing defenses (Detroit and Oakland, respectively), and both of these guys are ready to pop. We're three weeks into the season and Percy Harvin has literally done everything we've expected aside from scoring a TD and suffering from migraines. As for Decker, he leads the team in catches and receiving yardage, yet he somehow hasn't grabbed a six-pointer this season. This week he faces a second-string Oakland secondary, and Percy-big-play-Harvin faces a Lions team that gave up five (5!) big play TDs last week against the Titans. So expect both Harvin and Decker to post solid numbers and crash the TD column this week.
2. Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
V-Jax has been fickle throughout his career, but if there's one constant this season, it's that you can throw on the Redskins--whether you're Drew Brees, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, or... Mohamed Sanu. And since I'd stick Josh Freeman somewhere between Bradford and Dalton (both of whom chucked 3 TDs against the Skins), you can expect 3 TDs from Freeman--with at least one going to a V-Jax who nearly starved in Dallas last week.
Bums:
1. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
He's hurt, he's reckless, and he's playing the Cardinals. And that's IF he plays. And IF he does, he'll be facing a defense that hasn't surrendered a 100-yd game or a rushing TD this season.
2. Jamaal Charles (RB - KC)
He erupted last week, but it was against the worst rushing defense in the league. Plus, the all-new Healthy Jamaal Charles won't surprise the Chargers, who are undoubtedly focusing their entire defensive gameplan on suppressing J-Mail. Keep in mind that in Weeks 1 and 2 (when the Chargers held the lead), they limited opposing RBs to less than 50 yards in both games. I expect them to go up early and keep one eye on J-Mail at all times.
3. A.J. Green (WR - CIN)
The Jags' defense is a cracked shell of its 2011 self. Running backs graze in the endzone, rookie wideouts post monster days, and turnovers are practically unheard of. Yet for whatever reason the Jags's defense keeps No. 1 WRs in check. Percy Harvin was virtually silent in the first half of Week 1, Andre Johnson ceased to exist in Week 2, and Reggie Wayne failed to break double-digit fantasy points for the first time this season in Week 3. A lot of this has to do with the Jags' utterly abysmal run defense, and we can expect a heavy dose of the Law Firm this week. As for A.J., expect pedestrian numbers.
Sleepers:
1. Alex Smith (QB - SF)
I have no idea which lucky Niner receivers will catch TDs from Alex Smith this weekend, but I do know that Darrelle Revis cannot cover them from the sideline.
2. Jerome Simpson (WR - MIN)
Because Christian Ponder has to throw to somebody other than Harvin and Rudolph. Jerome Simpson's coming off a suspension, not an injury, so expect him to immediately establish himself at the No. 2 wideout in an underrated passing attack that gets a soft match-up against the Lions.
3. Ronnie Hillman (RB - DEN)
This depends entirely on whether or not McGahee plays, but I don't like Lance Ball as a feature back. Even for one week. Even against the Raiders. And if you're the Broncos, why wouldn't you give your speedy 3rd Round draft pick a test drive against Oakland's horrid defense?
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012
"Hope You Started Him": Week 3 Surprises
Between the refs, the Cards, and the fact that the Patriots lost two straight games for the first time since my high school days, I'm not sure what to make of this NFL season. It's a mess, it's 2012, the end is nigh, etc. And if there's any sure sign of the apocalypse, can I nominate Carson Palmer's three straight games of 17+ fantasy points? Does the world automatically end if he hits the #1 overall QB peak at some point this season? I hope so. At least it's reassuring that I rack up more yards walking to the mailbox than Chris Johnson does in sixty minutes of football. Sure hope you didn't draft him. But I hope you started these guys:
1. Arizona Cardinals Defense
They're not a huge surprise, but I doubted them up until yesterday. Now I'm sold. 5 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, and a TD to go along with it. Plus, they only gave up 6 points. We've found this year's top defense, and check out the next few games for the Cards: Miami, @ St. Louis, Buffalo, @ Minnesota. If you're like me and you play defenses from week-to-week, you can snatch up the Cards D and ride them out for the next month.
2. Mikel Leshoure (RB - Lions)
The Lions gave Leshoure the start yesterday, and he ran wild for triple-figures and even grabbed 4 balls for 34 yards. Hard not to love that kind of production, but before you start lusting over him and offering up guys like Roddy White and Jordy Nelson as trade bait, consider this: Leshoure had a big day against the same Titans team that Stevan Ridley and Jackie Battle wrecked in the past two weeks. Stevan Ridley is now homeless, and Jackie Battle may be lucky to scrape by as a goalline back. Plus, keep in min that no team has thrown more than the Lions in the past two seasons. So I'd say temper your expectations for the Lions new starter, as he's not a "shoure" thing yet (har har). If anything, I'd advise trying to trade him for a mid-level receiver--maybe you can catch a Percy Harvin owner napping.
3. Ramses Barden (WR - NYG)
We've seen this movie before. It came out last year packaged as "Victor Cruz." This year's heartwarming tale about a no-name Giants wideout stars Ramses Barden, and before you downplay the guys performance, consider that he had TEN targets on Thursday night. And he caught nine of them. Now, with the way Hakeem Nicks keeps heading in and out of the emergency room, it's realistic for Barden to see some time this year. And even if Nicks and Cruz stay healthy, Barden could fit as a nice flex guy (remember, Eli fed three WRs last year). Grab him, stash him on the bench, see what happens.
1. Arizona Cardinals Defense
They're not a huge surprise, but I doubted them up until yesterday. Now I'm sold. 5 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, and a TD to go along with it. Plus, they only gave up 6 points. We've found this year's top defense, and check out the next few games for the Cards: Miami, @ St. Louis, Buffalo, @ Minnesota. If you're like me and you play defenses from week-to-week, you can snatch up the Cards D and ride them out for the next month.
2. Mikel Leshoure (RB - Lions)
The Lions gave Leshoure the start yesterday, and he ran wild for triple-figures and even grabbed 4 balls for 34 yards. Hard not to love that kind of production, but before you start lusting over him and offering up guys like Roddy White and Jordy Nelson as trade bait, consider this: Leshoure had a big day against the same Titans team that Stevan Ridley and Jackie Battle wrecked in the past two weeks. Stevan Ridley is now homeless, and Jackie Battle may be lucky to scrape by as a goalline back. Plus, keep in min that no team has thrown more than the Lions in the past two seasons. So I'd say temper your expectations for the Lions new starter, as he's not a "shoure" thing yet (har har). If anything, I'd advise trying to trade him for a mid-level receiver--maybe you can catch a Percy Harvin owner napping.
3. Ramses Barden (WR - NYG)
We've seen this movie before. It came out last year packaged as "Victor Cruz." This year's heartwarming tale about a no-name Giants wideout stars Ramses Barden, and before you downplay the guys performance, consider that he had TEN targets on Thursday night. And he caught nine of them. Now, with the way Hakeem Nicks keeps heading in and out of the emergency room, it's realistic for Barden to see some time this year. And even if Nicks and Cruz stay healthy, Barden could fit as a nice flex guy (remember, Eli fed three WRs last year). Grab him, stash him on the bench, see what happens.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Week 3: Heroes, Bums, and Sleepers
Heroes:
1. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC)
I wouldn't be surprised if both defensive coordinators were fired after this one. On one end you have Drew Brees gunning down a soft Chiefs secondary, and on the other you have Matt Cassel working his magic in garbage time. And when Cassel's on trash duty, who's he going to throw to? Dwayne Bowe, good guess. Both teams are giving up 35 PPG (that's 5 TDs), and I expect Bowe to catch two scores and rack up triple-digit yardage. And while you're at it, start as many Chiefs and Saints as you can--Matt Cassel should finish in the top ten this week, and even guys like Peyton Hillis and Pierre Thomas are worth a start.
2. Martellus Bennett (TE - NYG)
Let's say you're the Panthers' defensive coordinator. You know Hakeem Nicks is out, as are Ahmad Bradshaw and Dominick Hixon. That leaves Victor Cruz as the only real threat on offense for the Giants. Now, if you're heading Carolina's defense tonight, wouldn't you tell your guys to zone in on that Cruz fella? Wouldn't you post pictures of Cruz all over the locker room with the caption "No Salsa Dances"? Exactly, and while Cruz is double-covered and the rest of the Giants receiving corps is at the hospital, you can expect 90 yards and a TD from a sneaky Martellus Bennett.
3. Donald Brown (RB - IND)
The Jags are basically inviting running backs into the endzone. They've allowed five rushing TDs in two games, which is an embarrassment considering how staunch they were against the run last season. Injuries to Daryl Smith and Clint Session wrecked what was a solid defense. And with Blaine Gabbert regressing to 2011 form, you can expect the Colts to be up comfortably and pounding the rock with Don Brown in the second half.
Bums:
1. Andre Johnson (WR - HOU)
Last week Matt Schaub dinked and dunked and checked down every time he dropped back to throw. Andre ended up with a three catches for a staggering 21 yards. This was against the Jaguars, whose defense was in shambles with Daryl Smith injured. This week AJ has to line up opposite Champ Bailey for four quarters, and there's no one else in the passing game to draw attention away from Andre. Oh, and the Texans like to utilize these two guys named Ben and Arian as much as possible.
2. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
I'm not buying. Bush blew up a Raiders defense that (a) wore black jerseys in Florida heat, (b) traveled across the country on six-day's rest, and (c) sleepwalked through a 1 pm game in an earlier time zone. The Raiders are garbage to begin with, and last week they had every reason to be tired. Now Reggie goes up against a superior Rex Ryan defense that will undoubtedly key in on him.
3. Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
I'm hitting the panic button on Manning this week. Not only did he look terrible on Monday night, it appeared he won't be able to throw downfield for a while. Even the deep Manning passes that weren't intercepted looked ugly, and I'm sure Wade Phillips is drawing up a defensive gameplan that'll shut down the underneath routes. He'd be stupid not to. And even if Manning showed no sign of weakness, I'd still recommend treading carefully against the Texans D on six-day's rest.
Sleepers:
1. Peyton Hillis (RB - KC)
It'll be raining fantasy points in New Orleans, and I don't expect Hillis stay dry. He fumbled at the goalline last week, but I say he punches it this time against a team that has given up 4 TDs to running backs so far. Expect a solid game from Hillis to the tune of 70 total yards and a TD.
2. Sam Bradford (QB - STL)
Popular opinion suggest that the Bears are going to crush the Rams, but I think this will be a close one. Bradford threw for 3 TDs last week, and the Bears are soft in the secondary (allowing 254 yards per game). I could easily see Bradford chucking a couple touchdowns, especially if the Rams have to play from behind.
1. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC)
I wouldn't be surprised if both defensive coordinators were fired after this one. On one end you have Drew Brees gunning down a soft Chiefs secondary, and on the other you have Matt Cassel working his magic in garbage time. And when Cassel's on trash duty, who's he going to throw to? Dwayne Bowe, good guess. Both teams are giving up 35 PPG (that's 5 TDs), and I expect Bowe to catch two scores and rack up triple-digit yardage. And while you're at it, start as many Chiefs and Saints as you can--Matt Cassel should finish in the top ten this week, and even guys like Peyton Hillis and Pierre Thomas are worth a start.
2. Martellus Bennett (TE - NYG)
Let's say you're the Panthers' defensive coordinator. You know Hakeem Nicks is out, as are Ahmad Bradshaw and Dominick Hixon. That leaves Victor Cruz as the only real threat on offense for the Giants. Now, if you're heading Carolina's defense tonight, wouldn't you tell your guys to zone in on that Cruz fella? Wouldn't you post pictures of Cruz all over the locker room with the caption "No Salsa Dances"? Exactly, and while Cruz is double-covered and the rest of the Giants receiving corps is at the hospital, you can expect 90 yards and a TD from a sneaky Martellus Bennett.
3. Donald Brown (RB - IND)
The Jags are basically inviting running backs into the endzone. They've allowed five rushing TDs in two games, which is an embarrassment considering how staunch they were against the run last season. Injuries to Daryl Smith and Clint Session wrecked what was a solid defense. And with Blaine Gabbert regressing to 2011 form, you can expect the Colts to be up comfortably and pounding the rock with Don Brown in the second half.
Bums:
1. Andre Johnson (WR - HOU)
Last week Matt Schaub dinked and dunked and checked down every time he dropped back to throw. Andre ended up with a three catches for a staggering 21 yards. This was against the Jaguars, whose defense was in shambles with Daryl Smith injured. This week AJ has to line up opposite Champ Bailey for four quarters, and there's no one else in the passing game to draw attention away from Andre. Oh, and the Texans like to utilize these two guys named Ben and Arian as much as possible.
2. Reggie Bush (RB - MIA)
I'm not buying. Bush blew up a Raiders defense that (a) wore black jerseys in Florida heat, (b) traveled across the country on six-day's rest, and (c) sleepwalked through a 1 pm game in an earlier time zone. The Raiders are garbage to begin with, and last week they had every reason to be tired. Now Reggie goes up against a superior Rex Ryan defense that will undoubtedly key in on him.
3. Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
I'm hitting the panic button on Manning this week. Not only did he look terrible on Monday night, it appeared he won't be able to throw downfield for a while. Even the deep Manning passes that weren't intercepted looked ugly, and I'm sure Wade Phillips is drawing up a defensive gameplan that'll shut down the underneath routes. He'd be stupid not to. And even if Manning showed no sign of weakness, I'd still recommend treading carefully against the Texans D on six-day's rest.
Sleepers:
1. Peyton Hillis (RB - KC)
It'll be raining fantasy points in New Orleans, and I don't expect Hillis stay dry. He fumbled at the goalline last week, but I say he punches it this time against a team that has given up 4 TDs to running backs so far. Expect a solid game from Hillis to the tune of 70 total yards and a TD.
2. Sam Bradford (QB - STL)
Popular opinion suggest that the Bears are going to crush the Rams, but I think this will be a close one. Bradford threw for 3 TDs last week, and the Bears are soft in the secondary (allowing 254 yards per game). I could easily see Bradford chucking a couple touchdowns, especially if the Rams have to play from behind.
Monday, September 17, 2012
"Hope You Started Him": Week 2 Surprises
A mind-boggling Week 2 (seriously, how many Eliminator/Last Man Standing entries got crushed by the Cards this week?) is almost in the books, so it's time to sift through all the eggs that Run-DMC and CJ0K laid and check out a few unsung guys who ripped off nice stat lines.
Sam Bradford (QB - Rams): 26/35, 310 YDS, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even if Bradford tossed seven TDs, he'd still be the most overpaid draft pick not named JaMarcus, but that's another story. Yesterday he posted an elite fantasy statline en route to the Rams' first win in thirty-six games--well, close enough. Last week I said I liked the Rams secondary (which held RG3 to only one passing TD and 206 passing yards), but I never expected this kind of performance from their offense. With the Rams looking like a Wild Card contender, you could do worse than to stash Bradford on your bench or start him in a weekly salary league. The only concern with Bradford is his obsession with Danny Amendola. Sam the Ram targeted Danny Am a whopping 16 times yesterday. The rest of the team garnered 19 targets, and no other receiver had more than four. So my question is: what happens when defenses key on shutting down Amendola? Can Bradford thrive when he's chucking to Brandon Gibson and The Lesser Steve Smith? Tell you what, worry about that when the time comes. Snag Bradford and Amendola while you can.
Andrew Hawkins (WR - Bengals): 2 REC, 56YDS, 1TD
For the second week straight Andrew Hawkins posted a sneaky-good fantasy line. This time, Hawkins caught a pass from Dalton, performed a series of Madden-moves, and hustled into the endzone. What's not to love? How about the fact that Hawkins would've netted you 1 catch for 6 yards without that late TD? Hawkins is explosive and fun to watch, but A.J. Green is the primary target in this offense, and beyond that you're stuck playing guessing games with Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, and Hawkins.
Jackie Battle (RB - Chargers): 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TDS
If you're a Ryan Mathews owner, you want Jackie Battle dead, immediately. Battle punched in two TDs from the 1 yard-line yesterday, suggesting that he might be the goalline back for the Chargers from here on. Mathews will be the focus of the running game when he returns, but it's realistic to hope for 30 yards and a score from Jackie Battle, who posted boring, pedestrian numbers in the Chiefs offense last year. Don't fall in love with Jackie Battle, but if you've got room on your bench or need a cheap RB in a salary league, by all means enlist Battle.
Sam Bradford (QB - Rams): 26/35, 310 YDS, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even if Bradford tossed seven TDs, he'd still be the most overpaid draft pick not named JaMarcus, but that's another story. Yesterday he posted an elite fantasy statline en route to the Rams' first win in thirty-six games--well, close enough. Last week I said I liked the Rams secondary (which held RG3 to only one passing TD and 206 passing yards), but I never expected this kind of performance from their offense. With the Rams looking like a Wild Card contender, you could do worse than to stash Bradford on your bench or start him in a weekly salary league. The only concern with Bradford is his obsession with Danny Amendola. Sam the Ram targeted Danny Am a whopping 16 times yesterday. The rest of the team garnered 19 targets, and no other receiver had more than four. So my question is: what happens when defenses key on shutting down Amendola? Can Bradford thrive when he's chucking to Brandon Gibson and The Lesser Steve Smith? Tell you what, worry about that when the time comes. Snag Bradford and Amendola while you can.
Andrew Hawkins (WR - Bengals): 2 REC, 56YDS, 1TD
For the second week straight Andrew Hawkins posted a sneaky-good fantasy line. This time, Hawkins caught a pass from Dalton, performed a series of Madden-moves, and hustled into the endzone. What's not to love? How about the fact that Hawkins would've netted you 1 catch for 6 yards without that late TD? Hawkins is explosive and fun to watch, but A.J. Green is the primary target in this offense, and beyond that you're stuck playing guessing games with Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, and Hawkins.
Jackie Battle (RB - Chargers): 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TDS
If you're a Ryan Mathews owner, you want Jackie Battle dead, immediately. Battle punched in two TDs from the 1 yard-line yesterday, suggesting that he might be the goalline back for the Chargers from here on. Mathews will be the focus of the running game when he returns, but it's realistic to hope for 30 yards and a score from Jackie Battle, who posted boring, pedestrian numbers in the Chiefs offense last year. Don't fall in love with Jackie Battle, but if you've got room on your bench or need a cheap RB in a salary league, by all means enlist Battle.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Fantasy Triangle, Week 2: Bengals
A Fantasy Triangle isn't as dirty as it sounds. This week's concern is the Andy Dalton/BenJarvis Green-Ellis/ A.J. Green point distribution. After a Monday night beatdown in Baltimore, Cincy has a softer match-up this week against a Joe Haden-less Browns defense. Everyone in the continental U.S. knows that Cleveland has nothing resembling an offense, so we could be looking at a final score of 27-3. The biggest worry for Cincy fantasy starters (other than a helmet-cracking defensive struggle) is that the game gets so out of hand that Marvin Lewis starts sitting guys in the 4th quarter.
That being said, it's easy to love Green-Ellis this week, with average payouts going to Dalton and Green. For as impressive as Cleveland looked on defense last week, Joe Haden's absence will hit the Browns with a domino effect. A.J. Green won't get stuck in Shutdown City, but he could draw plenty of extra attention if Andrew Hawkins can't keep the secondary honest. Regardless, Green should nab his first TD of the season along with 70 yards receiving. Pencil in Andy Dandy for 2 TDs and 215 yards while we're at it. As for the Law Firm, expect him to top his healthy yardage total from Monday and add another TD. I'm tempted to mark him down for 2 TDs, but Cleveland should force a few FGs. Either way, expect fatal dosages of Green-Ellis in the second half.
Bottom line: Law Firm impresses, Andy Dandy puts up decent numbers, Green gets a TD on the board but stays quiet otherwise.
And with the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select...
That being said, it's easy to love Green-Ellis this week, with average payouts going to Dalton and Green. For as impressive as Cleveland looked on defense last week, Joe Haden's absence will hit the Browns with a domino effect. A.J. Green won't get stuck in Shutdown City, but he could draw plenty of extra attention if Andrew Hawkins can't keep the secondary honest. Regardless, Green should nab his first TD of the season along with 70 yards receiving. Pencil in Andy Dandy for 2 TDs and 215 yards while we're at it. As for the Law Firm, expect him to top his healthy yardage total from Monday and add another TD. I'm tempted to mark him down for 2 TDs, but Cleveland should force a few FGs. Either way, expect fatal dosages of Green-Ellis in the second half.
Bottom line: Law Firm impresses, Andy Dandy puts up decent numbers, Green gets a TD on the board but stays quiet otherwise.
And with the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select...
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Week 2: Explosions, Busts, and Sleepers
Take a well-earned sigh of relief. The cloudiest week in fantasy is now behind us. Among the Week 1 fantasy revelations: RG3 wants to be the next Cam Newton, C.J. Spiller averages thrice as many yards per rush as CJ2K does per game, and a healthy Peyton Manning likes an even spread of targets for Decker, Thomas, and Tamme. In the spirit of suprise and disappointment, let's launch the Week 2 edition of Explosions, Busts, and Sleepers.
Week 2 Explosions (Consistent guys bound to go off this week)
1. Brandon Marshall (CHI - WR)
He's an obvious start if you own him in a league, but if you're doing a weekly salary contest or a pick 'em, he should be top choice at WR. The revival of the Cutler-Marshall connection drew a lot of preseason hype, and if you invested in Marshall, you got a solid payout in Week 1: 9 catches, 119 yards, and a TD. He's clearly Jay Cutler's favorite target, and this week Marshall faces the Packers secondary in a game that's sure to be a shootout. If the Bears are going to win this game, they have to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-38 points. Expect double-digit catches and 2 TDs for Marshall on Thursday night.
2. Eric Decker (DEN - WR)
Decker is another WR who will find himself in a shootout this week. Against the Steelers, Decker caught 5 balls for 54 yards on 7 targets. One of the incompletions came in the endzone during a contested play. It's no secret that Peyton has admired Decker's ability since the 2011 draft, and now he'll put that slick route running to good use. It's not out of the question for Peyton Manning to throw 4 TDs Monday night in the Georgia Dome. With Demaryius Thomas drawing the eyes of the secondary, expect Decker to hit paydirt twice this week.
3. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
All summer long we heard the panic sirens ringing around the Cowboys offensive line. Then Week 1 arrived and Demarco Murray gashed the Giants defense for 131 yards on 20 carries. If a bad Cowboys o-line can open things up, imagine what the Bucs' improved line will do. Expect gaudy numbers for young Doug Martin this week against the Giants. Martin ran for 94 yards last week against the Panthers, and his only knock was that he got stuffed during three chances on the goalline. He should punch one in this week and chew up the field in the process.
Week 2 Busts (Guys bound to perform below expectations)
1. Pierre Garcon (WAS - WR)
Garcon had a monster stat-line in RG3's debut, but 88 of his 109 receiving yards came on one long TD catch. If you're expecting Garcon to be a consistent fantasy option, stop. For as impressive as RG3's debut was, he attempted only 26 passes (in a game in which the Skins scored 40, no less), and Garcon wasn't even the most-targeted WR. This week the Redskins face a Rams secondary that kept Calvin Johnson out of the endzone. Oh, and the Rams held Matthew Stafford without a TD pass until the "bonus time" at the end of the game, courtesy of the refs. Temper your expectations for RG3 as well.
2. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin (DAL - WR)
Can you believe it? It's Week 2 and we're still waiting on our first Tony Romo debacle of the season. On Sunday the Cowboys have to deal with the Seahawks and their infamous home field advantage. Seattle's defense was ranked #1 against the pass last season, and they held Larry Fitzgerald to 4 catches on 11 targets last week. Sure, we're talking about the Cardinals and their abysmal QB situation, but it's hard to argue against a secondary loaded with Pro Bowlers. Lower your hopes for the Dez/Austin combo and possibly roll the dice on Ogletree if you're feeling lucky.
Week 2 Sleepers (Off-the-radar guys who could surprise this week)
1. Dexter McCluster (KC - RB/WR)
Lost among the flaming ruins of the Kansas City Chiefs last week was the fact that Dexter McCluster put in a solid day at the office as a slot receiver. Glad to finally see the Chiefs utilizing McCluster as more than a gimmick. He grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards on a whopping 10 targets, and believe it or not 5 of those targets came prior to garbage time. By comparison, Dwayne Bowe was targeted 6 times. Expect McCluster to continue seeing the ball come his way in the slot, and I think a TD is on tap against a Bills defense that got humiliated by Mark Sanchez.
2. Vikings Defense/Special Teams
Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill were so terrible last week that Andrew Luck's 4 turnovers went virtually unnoticed. That being said, I can see the Vikings garnering at least another 2 turnovers and a few sacks. If you get points for return yardage, remember you're getting Percy Harvin on kick returns.
3. Alshon Jeffery (CHI - WR)
Jay Cutler trash-talked the Packers secondary this week, saying, "Good luck." After Brandon Marshall snags a TD or two, the Packers should zero-in on the superstar, leaving the rookie Jeffery to post another solid stat-line. The Bears talked up Jeffery in the offseason, and it's realistic to see him passing off Devin Hester and Easy Earl Bennett sooner than later.
Week 2 Explosions (Consistent guys bound to go off this week)
1. Brandon Marshall (CHI - WR)
He's an obvious start if you own him in a league, but if you're doing a weekly salary contest or a pick 'em, he should be top choice at WR. The revival of the Cutler-Marshall connection drew a lot of preseason hype, and if you invested in Marshall, you got a solid payout in Week 1: 9 catches, 119 yards, and a TD. He's clearly Jay Cutler's favorite target, and this week Marshall faces the Packers secondary in a game that's sure to be a shootout. If the Bears are going to win this game, they have to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-38 points. Expect double-digit catches and 2 TDs for Marshall on Thursday night.
2. Eric Decker (DEN - WR)
Decker is another WR who will find himself in a shootout this week. Against the Steelers, Decker caught 5 balls for 54 yards on 7 targets. One of the incompletions came in the endzone during a contested play. It's no secret that Peyton has admired Decker's ability since the 2011 draft, and now he'll put that slick route running to good use. It's not out of the question for Peyton Manning to throw 4 TDs Monday night in the Georgia Dome. With Demaryius Thomas drawing the eyes of the secondary, expect Decker to hit paydirt twice this week.
3. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
All summer long we heard the panic sirens ringing around the Cowboys offensive line. Then Week 1 arrived and Demarco Murray gashed the Giants defense for 131 yards on 20 carries. If a bad Cowboys o-line can open things up, imagine what the Bucs' improved line will do. Expect gaudy numbers for young Doug Martin this week against the Giants. Martin ran for 94 yards last week against the Panthers, and his only knock was that he got stuffed during three chances on the goalline. He should punch one in this week and chew up the field in the process.
Week 2 Busts (Guys bound to perform below expectations)
1. Pierre Garcon (WAS - WR)
Garcon had a monster stat-line in RG3's debut, but 88 of his 109 receiving yards came on one long TD catch. If you're expecting Garcon to be a consistent fantasy option, stop. For as impressive as RG3's debut was, he attempted only 26 passes (in a game in which the Skins scored 40, no less), and Garcon wasn't even the most-targeted WR. This week the Redskins face a Rams secondary that kept Calvin Johnson out of the endzone. Oh, and the Rams held Matthew Stafford without a TD pass until the "bonus time" at the end of the game, courtesy of the refs. Temper your expectations for RG3 as well.
2. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin (DAL - WR)
Can you believe it? It's Week 2 and we're still waiting on our first Tony Romo debacle of the season. On Sunday the Cowboys have to deal with the Seahawks and their infamous home field advantage. Seattle's defense was ranked #1 against the pass last season, and they held Larry Fitzgerald to 4 catches on 11 targets last week. Sure, we're talking about the Cardinals and their abysmal QB situation, but it's hard to argue against a secondary loaded with Pro Bowlers. Lower your hopes for the Dez/Austin combo and possibly roll the dice on Ogletree if you're feeling lucky.
Week 2 Sleepers (Off-the-radar guys who could surprise this week)
1. Dexter McCluster (KC - RB/WR)
Lost among the flaming ruins of the Kansas City Chiefs last week was the fact that Dexter McCluster put in a solid day at the office as a slot receiver. Glad to finally see the Chiefs utilizing McCluster as more than a gimmick. He grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards on a whopping 10 targets, and believe it or not 5 of those targets came prior to garbage time. By comparison, Dwayne Bowe was targeted 6 times. Expect McCluster to continue seeing the ball come his way in the slot, and I think a TD is on tap against a Bills defense that got humiliated by Mark Sanchez.
2. Vikings Defense/Special Teams
Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill were so terrible last week that Andrew Luck's 4 turnovers went virtually unnoticed. That being said, I can see the Vikings garnering at least another 2 turnovers and a few sacks. If you get points for return yardage, remember you're getting Percy Harvin on kick returns.
3. Alshon Jeffery (CHI - WR)
Jay Cutler trash-talked the Packers secondary this week, saying, "Good luck." After Brandon Marshall snags a TD or two, the Packers should zero-in on the superstar, leaving the rookie Jeffery to post another solid stat-line. The Bears talked up Jeffery in the offseason, and it's realistic to see him passing off Devin Hester and Easy Earl Bennett sooner than later.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Gabbert: Fantasy Relevant
Forget the final score. Forget the overthrow in overtime that sealed the Vikings' victory yesterday. Let's look a a guy who's marinating on almost every waiver wire right now: Blaine Gabbert.
Yep, that Blaine Gabbert. The same one who looked shell-shocked on every snap last season. The same one who ran play-action on a Hail Mary against the Steelers. He's now fantasy relevant, and I'd argue he could be a safe fantasy backup who could net 12 or 16 points a week in standard leagues (think 2011 Andy Dalton numbers). As for weekly salary leagues, he could be a cheap steal week after week.
Consider this: Gabbert posted his best game as a pro on Sunday. This was right after he impressed throughout the entire preseason. And not only has Gabbert finally stopped looking and playing like a homecoming queen, but his supporting cast has vastly improved. Mike Thomas, last year's No. 1 wideout, is now No. 4 on the depth chart. Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Cecil Shorts actually resemble a receiving corps, and TE Marcedes Lewis caught his first TD since the David Garrard era on Sunday.
Is there any catch? Sure. Gabbert's 260 yards and 2 TDs came against the last year's bottom-ranked fantasy pass defense. And you could argue that Gabbert only had a measly 10 points prior to Cecil Shorts' spectacular Hail Mary grab at the end of regulation. And you could point fingers at Maurice Jones-Drew's limited workload, which will increase starting next Sunday.
But the bottom line is this: Gabbert and the Jags have a rough schedule (the rest of the NFC North, the entire AFC East, and two games against Houston), MJD is an injury waiting to happen (no player has more touches than MJD over the past three years), and Gabbert finally has reliable hands to throw to. And the Jags are still in rebuilding mode. They'll be down, they'll be throwing. And if you're looking to snag a guy on waivers, why not roll the dice on a guy who's throwing downfield, as opposed to say, Carson Palmer, who completed thirteen (!) dump-offs to McFadden on Monday night.
Yep, that Blaine Gabbert. The same one who looked shell-shocked on every snap last season. The same one who ran play-action on a Hail Mary against the Steelers. He's now fantasy relevant, and I'd argue he could be a safe fantasy backup who could net 12 or 16 points a week in standard leagues (think 2011 Andy Dalton numbers). As for weekly salary leagues, he could be a cheap steal week after week.
Consider this: Gabbert posted his best game as a pro on Sunday. This was right after he impressed throughout the entire preseason. And not only has Gabbert finally stopped looking and playing like a homecoming queen, but his supporting cast has vastly improved. Mike Thomas, last year's No. 1 wideout, is now No. 4 on the depth chart. Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Cecil Shorts actually resemble a receiving corps, and TE Marcedes Lewis caught his first TD since the David Garrard era on Sunday.
Is there any catch? Sure. Gabbert's 260 yards and 2 TDs came against the last year's bottom-ranked fantasy pass defense. And you could argue that Gabbert only had a measly 10 points prior to Cecil Shorts' spectacular Hail Mary grab at the end of regulation. And you could point fingers at Maurice Jones-Drew's limited workload, which will increase starting next Sunday.
But the bottom line is this: Gabbert and the Jags have a rough schedule (the rest of the NFC North, the entire AFC East, and two games against Houston), MJD is an injury waiting to happen (no player has more touches than MJD over the past three years), and Gabbert finally has reliable hands to throw to. And the Jags are still in rebuilding mode. They'll be down, they'll be throwing. And if you're looking to snag a guy on waivers, why not roll the dice on a guy who's throwing downfield, as opposed to say, Carson Palmer, who completed thirteen (!) dump-offs to McFadden on Monday night.
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